Larry did well to get +3.5 earlier today -- although Xavier's Paul Scruggs (11.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.1 apg) was not officially ruled out then. Now he has been (torn ACL) so I agree there's a good chance Vandy wins outright. The Commodores are 8-1-1 in their last 10 ATS while Xavier is just 3-7 ATS in its past 10.

The Commodores have won five of six, the loss coming by six points to Kentucky in the SEC Tournament, and they're 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 as road dogs. They also come in on a 13-2 ATS run overall. Scotty Pippen Jr. should be the best player on the floor tonight in Cincinnati; he's coming off a 32-point performance versus Dayton. Xavier will be missing senior point guard Paul Scruggs (11.7 ppg, 4.1 apg), forcing sophomore Dwon Odom into the starting lineup. Odom is rock-solid but that means Xavier's bench will be thin. Take the points.