The 15-over-2 upset is rare, only occurring 10 times since the bracket expanded after adding Saint Peter's incredible overtime win against a title-contending Kentucky team to the list. But what's even more rare is seeing that No. 15 seed go on to win its next game and make the Sweet 16. No. 15 seeds are 2-7 in the second round, with Florida Gulf Coast (2013) and Oral Roberts (2021) as the only winners. The high quality from Murray State was on display in its overtime thriller against San Francisco and I think the Racers can put turn this carriage back into a pumpkin somewhat quickly and win by double digits.

Kentucky (-18) got the Saint Peter’s squeeze on Thursday and lost, so what's to stop the Peacocks now? They have won and covered in their last eight, and now they have Cinderella’s slipper as a No. 15 seed. The defense has held opponents under 32 percent shooting over the past eight games and will be disruptive again. An upset is possible, but under is the better play.