These are two teams that move at a glacial pace, as both average just over 66.5 possessions per game. Notre Dame's the better offensive team, but is too reliant on the three-pointer, and when it's not falling, they have no plan B. Meanwhile, Rutgers is tenacious defensively and will make the Irish work for everything. This should be a tightly-contested game for 40 minutes, and one likely to finish below this total.

Ron Harper Jr. in a one-score game? Lock up the Scarlet Knights. If this game plays out as oddsmakers expect with a one-possession finish, there isn't anyone on the floor I trust more to execute than Harper, who has delivered time and time again for Rutgers during his career. One principle for the NCAA Tournament is "Find the Hooper," a.k.a. who can go and get you a bucket when the team needs it most. Both teams are going to be happy to play a possession-by-possession execution game, and Rutgers is battle-tested enough against a strong Big Ten conference schedule to be ready for the challenge.

I'm going to grab Rutgers for a First Four play on Wednesday. I have them winning this game by two points based on recent performance. In 10 games since February 5th, Rutgers has only played one opponent outside the top 50 D1 teams. A testament to how strong the Big Ten is this year. Rutgers went 6-4 in those games, beating teams like Wisconsin and Indiana on the road. I think that dispels the fears of them only being good at home. Notre Dame, who I have ranked at 54th, is worse than what Rutgers has been beating and comes from a weaker conference. I think the Scarlet Knights are ready so I'm taking the point and expecting a win.

Notre Dame finished tied for second in the ACC but was promptly dropped in its first game of the ACC Tournament by Virginia Tech. Rutgers was fifth in the Big Ten but were relegated to this First Four game for some reason, perhaps because its dominance came mostly at home (14-3). I have Rutgers rated a half-point better on a neutral court, and I have a feeling Rutgers will have a home edge with its leading scorer, Ron Harper Jr., playing in Dayton. Ron Sr. grew up in Dayton and has a school gym named after him there. Most importantly, Rutgers is the better team with the better defense and went 5-4 against ranked teams. Notre Dame went 1-1 against ranked teams. Notre Dame is going to push the pace and help get the game Over (its last eight games have gone Over), but Rutgers will cover.