I love the response from Iowa after Rutgers jumped out in front early on Friday, and the Hawkeyes might need to weather another wave of motivation from Indiana in the midst of the Hoosiers epic Big Ten tournament run. The Hawkeyes form is much better than Michigan or Illinois -- covering five straight games and going 9-2 ATS in the last 11 -- so the odds of another second half collapse seem low. Picking against Indiana has not been profitable recently, but the Hawkeyes are the most consistent team the Hoosiers have faced in this run and have their own title hopes as motivation.

It's been a nice run for Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament, but it should end today. The Hoosiers used terrific defense to get past Michigan and Illinois, but defense alone won't beat Iowa. You need to score points too, and Indiana's offense has still struggled, as it averaged only 0.98 points per possession in the win over Illinois.

It's time for the clock to strike midnight and for Cinderella to return home with only one shoe to show for her efforts. ShotQuality.com calculated that Illinois would have beaten Indiana in 90% of the games in which the shots occurred the way they did. Indiana should not be here, they hit bad quality shots and the Illini missed good looks. That type of luck isn't unheard of in March but the Iowa Hawkeye's Top 5 rated offense in efficiency should have something to say about this magical Hoosiers run. This team can flat out score, I do not think anyone is keeping up with them if they continue to play as they have. I'll take the -6 before we have to eat the hook on a line that likely will inflate.