My simulations make USC -3.8 favorites against the Ducks, making it strong enough to play here at the closing line of -2. The difference in this game is the defensive efficiency where Oregon barely cracks the top 65 in the country in my model ratings. If USC can limit one of Duarte or Figueroa this should be a comfortable win. Lay it.

No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 6 USC in West Region. In a game that appears this evenly-matched, go with the team that has the best player. That's Trojans 7-foot freshman Evan Mobley, who probably will be the No. 2 overall pick (behind Cade Cunningham) in the 2021 NBA Draft. The Ducks might have the better overall roster, but they don't have the size to deal with Mobley. When these teams met Feb. 22 in L.A., Mobley had just a so-so game by his standards with 11 points, five rebounds and two assists, yet USC still won by 14. The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the past 11 meetings.

I absolutely love the way Oregon is playing right now, looking the best they have all season. The Ducks have won seven of their last eight games and covered in six of seven. Their run started after a 72-58 loss at USC on Feb. 22 in the only meeting between the teams this season. Oregon will have revenge on its minds. The Trojans are coming off an amazing game vs. Kansas in which they hit 61 percent of their three-point attempts. They held Kansas to 29 percent shooting from the field. Don't expect to see those type of numbers in this one.