Georgia State's games have averaged 153 points this season. The Panthers are 5-1 to the over in their last six games. Appalachian State's away games have averaged 135.5 points. Both teams could be playing on tired legs. Appalachian State is on its fourth game in four days. Georgia State is playing its third game in three days. That will lead to less defense. These teams have played three times this year, with total scores of 151, 135 and 156.

At first glance this looks like a big number given that Appalachian State won two of the three regular-season meetings, and just knocked off the best team from the West Division and the No. 2 seed from the East. But the Mountaineers have to be fatigued. This is their fourth game in four days, the last two going to OT. Junior forward James Lewis missed Sunday's win over Coastal Carolina with an apparent ankle injury; he had 22 points and 14 rebounds in one of the Mountaineers' wins over Georgia State. The Panthers are much fresher, they've won eight in a row, and they were the tournament favorites for a reason. Lay it.

This is a blind system play for me. I bet the Under in every conference tournament final because teams are usually tired by the time they get there, and there's a lot on the line. Particularly in one-bid leagues like this one where the loser has almost no hope of reaching the dance. Georgia State is playing its third game in three days. Appalachian State is playing its fourth in four. Two tired teams with a lot on the line.