No. 16-seeded UMBC's historic upset of top-seeded Virginia will never be forgotten. What happens next to the Retrievers is unlikely to be remembered -- a blowout loss to Kansas State. History suggests the story of these massive Cinderellas rarely lasts past one chapter. Before beating Virginia, UMBC had lost its other two matchups with power-conference teams by 46 combined points, and eight of its 10 losses on the season are by double figures. Look for a solid K-State team that dominated Creighton in its opener to take advantage of this opportunity to make the Sweet 16.

Despite UMBC's amazing first-round upset of Virginia, my projections indicate the Retrievers won't have any magic left for their Sunday game against Kansas State. The simulations show the Wildcats covering this spread 60 percent of the time, so back the 'Cats over the 'dogs.