No. 18 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Texas Big 12 title game odds, trends: Longhorns need big victory, help to reach playoff; history says Under total is best bet

Probably the biggest loser of Tuesday night's penultimate College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings was Big 12 regular-season champion Texas (11-1), which stayed at No. 7 and is behind fellow one-loss team Ohio State. Is there a path for the Longhorns to the playoff? Yes, but they need to destroy No. 18 Oklahoma State in Saturday's Big 12 title game at AT&T Stadium and will need help. Texas is -14.5 on the SportsLine consensus and the total is 55.

The smart wager might be to take the Under on that total, as eight straight Big 12 Championship Games have gone Under. Those eight games averaged 48.6 total points scored, way below the average closing total of 59.4. Texas has scored at least 30 points in 10 of its 12 games this season, but also has a great defense led by lineman T'Vondre Sweat, a 6-foot-4, 365-pounder who is projected to be a first-round pick in the 2024 draft.

This week, Sweat named a finalist for the 2023 Outland Trophy, given annually the nation's top interior lineman. Four Texas players have won the award, but not since Brad Shearer did so way back in 1977. With Sweat usually clogging the middle, Texas earlier this season held five consecutive opponents – Houston, BYU, Kansas State, TCU and Iowa State – to less than 100 rushing yards, the Longhorns' longest such streak since 2009. Texas leads the nation in third-down defense (26.3%) and red zone defense (68.8%), while ranking fourth in rushing defense (85.0 yards per game). The Longhorns are also 12th in scoring defense (17.2 PPG) and 27th in first down defense (210).

Oklahoma State's defense has produced 18 total turnovers in the past eight games, and the Cowboys are 9-0 when they win or tie the turnover battle. OSU has held its opponents to just 4-of-23 on fourth down attempts this season -- the best rate in the nation. 

This year's team is based around stud running back Ollie Gordon II, who was named a Doak Walker Award finalist and almost surely will win it. Gordon's putting up numbers not seen in Stillwater since Barry Sanders was in town. Gordon leads the nation in rushing yards (1,580), rushing yards per game (131.7), 100-yard rushing games (eight), 150-yard rushing games (five), 200-yard rushing games (two), 250-yard rushing games (two) and carries of at least 30 yards (14), 40 yards (seven) and 70 yards (two). He is second in rushing touchdowns (20), total touchdowns (21) and all-purpose yards (1,852). Gordon is fresh off a five-TD game in last Saturday's comeback win over BYU. The only other Cowboy to score five rushing touchdowns in a game is the Hall of Famer Sanders. Gordon has an over/under of 103.5 rushing yards for this Saturday.

At 9-3, Oklahoma State has no chance at the playoff but would get a New Year's Six bowl with an upset. The Cowboys have won 10 of their past 13 games against AP-ranked teams. They are 2-0 this year, beating Kansas and Oklahoma.

What does Texas likely need to get to the national semifinals? Coach Steve Sarkisian could not have been happy that the Longhorns are behind Ohio State (No. 6) in the latest rankings, although the Buckeyes' lone loss at Michigan this past Saturday is certainly better than Texas' lone loss at a neutral site vs. Oklahoma back in October.

DraftKings gives Texas a price of +155 to make the playoff and -190 to not. Obviously, Texas has to win Saturday and winning big would only help. If Georgia beats Alabama as a 6-point favorite in the SEC title game and No. 4 Florida State loses to Louisville in the ACC title game – the Seminoles are -2.5 – the final top four on Sunday would likely be Georgia, Michigan (presuming the Wolverines beat Iowa in the Big Ten title game, which they're heavily favored to do), the Pac-12 champion and Texas. The Longhorns should pass the Buckeyes thanks to the conference title and their stellar road win at Alabama (now No. 8) early in the season.

If the Seminoles finish unbeaten with a win over Louisville in the ACC title game, it's unlikely the CFP committee would leave them out for Texas, even though FSU lost star quarterback Jordan Travis for the season a few weeks ago.

It's the first-ever meeting in the Big 12 Championship Game between the Longhorns and Cowboys and their last scheduled meeting with Texas off to the SEC next season. In past years when the Big 12 had 10 teams, Texas and OSU would have played during the regular season but did not with this year's new setup. Texas leads the all-time series 26-11, but OK State has won six of the past eight, including last a 41-34 victory year in Stillwater.

Mike Gundy is 9-9 in his career against Texas, while Sarkisian is 0-2 against Oklahoma State. This will be only the second neutral-site meeting between the programs -- they played in San Antonio in 1916.

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