If Dortmund has any realistic shot of catching first-place Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, a win here is a must. And the hosts are unbeaten in 16 straight league games. The last loss naturally was at Bayern Munich, 2-1 on Oct. 18. But Die Schwarzgelben are the only remaining unbeaten home team in the Bundesliga. The sides have basically allowed the same number of league goals, but Bayern has scored 85 and the hosts 49. Some of our books have +0.5 but I wouldn't play lower than this. I'm hoping for a draw Saturday.

Borussia Dortmund's players could be low on confidence after suffering a demoralising 4-1 defeat to Atalanta on Wednesday. They then had to fly back home from Italy, so they could also be tired and a little jet lagged. By contrast, Bayern Munich have had all week to rest and recuperate. They're top of the Bundesliga table, 8 points clear of Dortmund, and they will have one hand on the trophy if they win this game. The Bavarians beat Dortmund 2-1 earlier this season, which could give them a psychological advantage. Bayern also look superior to Borussia Dortmund in every department, so they should win Der Klassiker this weekend. It's a lot of juice, but in this case, it's worth the squeeze.