This match makes me want to get a burger (extra pickles) and a beer, and I don't care that it's 8:30 a.m. ET. Well, maybe on the beer. Perhaps by match time. St. Pauli is awful but this is a rare legit chance for a win. The Hamburglars aren't much better -- winless in four -- and have some player availability concerns. Our model has a draw. That works.

This is without a doubt, the most important Bundesliga matchup of matchday 19. The Hamburg derby is always a big match, but this season it's even more so. This is the first derby in Bundesliga play since February of 2011. This match is of incredible importance to St. Pauli staying in the league. Being last on the Bundesliga table, they're pressing for goals and fighting for their lives. I think BTTS hits, and I think St. Pauli is ready to give their fans a show.