This is priced under -200 so I guess I can justify it. The Habs are 2-5 at home in these playoffs but can't afford to go down 3-1. While Carolina might lead the series 2-1, Frederik Andersen has not been very strong overall with a save percentage below .830 in the three games combined. But the Canes have won the past two because they have limited Montreal to 25 total shots on goal in those. Gotta fire more on net in perhaps the home finale. I simply want the third OT game of the series. Carolina is due a playoff road loss, frankly. The Canadiens are 6-1 after a defeat in the 2026 postseason.

The scoreline in Game 2 and Game 3 might have read 3-2 OT winner for Carolina but the games haven't been that close. Since a rusty performance in Game 1 we're starting to see Carolina get to their game and assert their aggressive forecheck and physicality. Montreal has generated a grand total of 25 shots on goal COMBINED the last two games and I'm not sure what they can do to change that in Game 4. Carolina has 62% of expected goal share at 5 on 5 as well meaning the only thing close this series has been the final score each of the last two games. I'm closer to Carolina in the -55/-60 range adjusting for current form so I show a decent edge