There's this myth that it's very hard for one NFL team to beat another three times in one season. Well, in the past seven occurrences, the team that won the first two games is 5-2 straight up and has won the past three. At Saints -3, I wasn't much into this game but now that it's under a field goal, jump on it. The Bucs haven't beaten very many good teams this year (2-5 SU vs. clubs that finished .500 or better).

The Bucs offense has been hard to stop since the team's bye, but this might be their toughest test yet. The Saints haven't surrendered even 275 net passing yards to any team this year despite already playing the Bucs twice plus the Packers and Chiefs. They should make things tough for Tom Brady all day, and the Bucs don't have the rushing attack to lean on when needed. The Saints should be able to have success offensively against a Bucs defense that had trouble containing Taylor Heinicke last week, especially with Michael Thomas back on the field. This is a close matchup, as you'd expect with the line where it is, but the Saints defense makes the difference.

Did not think this line would slide under a field goal, but with the Saints expected to be without Taysom Hill and Latavius Murray, there is some momentum toward the Buccaneers. Let's take advantage. New Orleans has proven to be one of the best teams in the league all season, while Tampa Bay delivers uneven performances week to week, even in victories. The Saints defense has strengthened down the stretch, and they have their two best players -- Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas -- healthy for the second game in a row. This line gives me 2.5 points of value with a team that is on a 4-1 ATS streak at home with that lone defeat by the Chiefs. Unless the Bucs get a lot of PI calls, the Saints should take this.

The Buccaneers' offense has been on fire since the bye, and they would have put up more points last week against a tough Washington defense if not for Chris Godwin's uncharacteristic drops. It's hard for any defense, even one as good as the Saints', to contain Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Godwin. Over the past five weeks, the Bucs have averaged an NFL-best 6.9 yards per play. Tampa isn't going to get embarrassed by the Saints again. Take the points in what should be a very tight game.

The Saints were the last team to beat an opponent three times in one season. They did it in 2017 against the Panthers. While I expect the Bucs to not turn this game into the turnoverfest it was during the teams' second matchup, I don't expect them to gain much traction offensively against a stout Saints defense. Lay the points with New Orleans.

Many Tampa Bay backers are leaning on the old saw that it’s difficult to knock off a team three times in a season. Pshaw. History does not support the theory, especially when the combined score of the first two meetings is a lopsided 72-26, as is the case here. The Saints also swept the series in 2019, making Sean Payton 4-0 straight-up against a Buccaneers team coached by Bruce Arians. New Orleans QB Drew Brees’ reduced ability to throw downfield is offset by an array of top-flight receivers and superb RB Alvin Kamara. The Saints' defense is superior and could exploit the absence of Tampa Bay G Alex Cappa (ankle.)

The Buccaneers dropped both games against the Saints this season. The first game was relatively close while the second matchup was not. I really believe this helps the Buccaneers maintain a focus for Sunday; they should learn from it. It's very telling that the line is only three points considering how easily the Saints won both games. Tampa Bay had a minus-3 turnover margin in the first game, and Tom Brady threw three interceptions in the second matchup. The Saints held the Bears to a 10.0 percent conversion rate on third down last week, but I don't see that happening on Sunday; Tom Brady should be able to manipulate the Saints' defense. Take Tampa Bay plus the points, risking no juice.

New Orleans has Tampa Bay's number. The Saints beat the Bucs easily twice during the regular season and held Tampa Bay to just three points in the most recent meeting. Like all quarterbacks, Tom Brady doesn't do well when he's pressured, and the New Orleans defense is good at getting pressure; the Saints ranked eighth in the NFL in sacks (45). On the other side of the ball, quarterback Drew Brees should be able to take advantage of a blitz-heavy Bucs defense. I'm on the Saints.