This is a massive line for Grant Holmes who to his credit has pitched well, albeit above his head. I would fade Holmes in almost any matchup at 7.5. My model has a significant edge on this number.

Grant Holmes has been a pleasant surprise for the Braves and while he’s certainly pitched well, he screams regression candidate to me. On paper this would certainly qualify as a strong matchup, but the Orioles have been better as of late. I also like that Holmes is coming off a career high 106 pitches in his last outing. I’ll also be fading him under 7.5 Ks as well.

Atlanta continues to sink further in the NL East, losing 8 of 10, including six of eight in a very dispiriting homestand. Long-haired Grant Holmes might have pitched his game of the year in his last start on Tuesday vs. the Angels, but the way things have been going for the Braves, his six shutout innings weren't enough in a 4-0 loss. Meanwhile, the Birds are making some noise, and have a shot to get within five of the last wild card slot by the All-Star break if they continue to ascend. The O's have also won three of the four starts made by ex-Marlin Trevor Rogers, who has a 2.03 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in that span. Play Orioles on Money Line