Some books at 4.5 and I would still bet the under as long as it's plus odds. A Phillies lineup that's been sent packing less than 20% of the time vs. right handers, there's only one batter in the projected lineup who's struck out worse than 20% when facing Alcantara and those are larger sample sizes thanks to being division rivals. The pitch arsenal for Sandy has remained nearly identical to pre-injury and he possesses very solid Stuff+ numbers at 110. Yet, his actual strikeout total continues to lag as in previous years, staying under 20% so far, and inducing a ton of ground balls. Projecting much closer to four K's than six here.

The Marlins don't seem to know how bad they are and show way more fight than I expected. Neither of these starters has looked like the best version of himself, but Sandy Alcantara is coming back from a long absence and is gaining a better feel for his changeup. They've been very competitive within the NL East so far. Connor Norby's return is a fairly big deal for a lineup that's already been overproducing in my estimation.

The Marlins are still much worse than their record and there's more correcting in order. Zack Wheeler is better than he's pitched and this is a good spot for a bounce back. I still don't think Sandy Alcantara is all the way back from Tommy John surgery either.