Twins pitcher Joe Ryan has been roughed up in two of his past three outings but those were away -- he's 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA at home and has a 0.77 ERA in two starts overall against Kansas City this year. Regulars Hunter Dozier and Michael Taylor are both out of the KC lineup. It's Kris Bubic (2-6, 5.02 ERA) on the mound for the Royals. Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco have great splits off him. Twins batters are hitting .289 with 15 doubles, three triples, seven home runs, 42 walks and 48 runs scored against the Royals this season. They have recorded double-digit hit totals in five straight against KC.

My model says the Royals cover in well over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Kansas City looks to build off Sunday's tremendous performance on the mound as four pitchers combined on a two-hit shutout win against the major league-best Los Angeles Dodgers. The Royals hope for another strong effort from LHP Kris Bubic, who has allowed fewer than three earned runs in four of his last five starts. Minnesota RHP Joe Ryan has yielded six or more runs in two of his past three outings. Take the Royals +1.5 runs at -125.