I'm doubling down on the Tigers tonight and taking them on the runline at -1.5 (+165). This is simply a value bet as the Tigers will cover this runline more often than the 37 percent implied probability at this line.

The line movement in this game is insane. Most would run away from this game after seeing a 50 cent move away from your position on the game, but I trust my wOBA model, so here I am. I have the Tigers winning 60 percent of simulations at home against Mike Pelfrey. Matt Boyd isn't exactly an ace for the Tigers, but he should be able to navigate a White Sox lineup that might be without Jose Abreu. Even if Abreu plays I'm not convinced he will be effective with the hip injury.

This appears to be a revenge spot that has people swaying to former Tigers pitcher Mike Pelfrey. On Friday, the veteran will aim to take down his former team, which cut him less than a month ago. While he may perform above his latest standards, expect the White Sox bats to cool down after a solid stretch recently. Grab the home Tigers.