NBA | Miami @ Denver | 06/05 | 12:00 AM UTC
SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK PICK
ANALYSIS: The Nuggets are 9-0 at home in the playoffs. ...
ANALYSIS: The Nuggets are 9-0 at home in the playoffs. ...
ANALYSIS:
ANALYSIS: The Cubs start struggling Jameson Taillon in San Diego. ...
ANALYSIS: I wanted to share the four plays I think have the most value after the schedule release ...
ANALYSIS: Game 1s have been good for Miami Heat bettors this postseason. They were big underdogs in all three so far, and won all three outright. This is just way too many points. Take the underdog.
ANALYSIS: The Denver Nuggets are lethal at home, fully rested and facing an energy depleted Miami team traveling across the country and at altitude. Good enough for me. Look for Nikola Jokic to get the party started early for Denver and couple that with a Miami team known for slower starts this could be a nice grab-and-go for us tonight. First quarter bets leave such little margin for error so definitely understand anyone who looks first half or just stays full game, love Denver in all aspects, but yeah if you're looking for opportunities to cash multiple ways tonight take a look here.
ANALYSIS: Welcome to the NBA Finals and the most fun bet in the sport! Nikola Jokic eclipsed this number in 3 of 4 in the Lakers series, 3 of 6 in the Suns series and 3 of 5 in the Timberwolves series. It's incredibly profitable. Couple that with the Heat's zone look approach defensively and it could force Jokic out behind the bow a few more looks than normal. This wager is always set at 1.5 and always at plus money...and historically speaking in the postseason you end up ahead in the end. Best of luck!
ANALYSIS: Cleveland comes off a series where they scored 22 runs in Baltimore. Tanner Bibee goes for the Guardians who has allowed two earned runs in each of his first two road starts. He faces a Minnesota team coming off an impressive series win at Houston. Pablo Lopez goes for the Twins, owning a 5.46 home ERA and allowing three or more walks in three of his last four starts. Over the last seven days, Cleveland is hitting .293 with a .773 OPS as compared to Minnesota hitting .259 with a .744 OPS.
ANALYSIS: I'm backing the Nuggets in game 1 at 8.5 and -9 across several different books and price points. This is a tough spot for Miami after the 7-game series with the Celtics and now have to deal with Nikola Jokic at altitude. NBA teams don't often see matchups like this where opposing teams can run offensive sets through their center. Miami was effective against Boston because they were able to switch nearly every screen, and because Boston continued to miss threes at a significant rate. The thing that stands out here for the Nuggets is the overall size against the Miami lineups. Michael Porter Jr and Aaron Gordon both have the ability to get shots up over these smaller defenders. I'm on the Nuggets.
ANALYSIS: Both the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins head into Friday’s series off of huge night’s at the plate Thursday. The Guardians scored twelve runs in their win over the Orioles while the Twins scored eight runs. That’s a concern with Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez’s issues at home were his ERA is 5.46. Grab the Guardians as the small underdog
ANALYSIS: Game one Miami likely will not be in range to win against the Denver Nuggets. What I do expect to happen is for the Denver Nuggets to have the same lapses we saw for most of their series against the LA Lakers. Miami should have an opportunity to threaten the number and cover with a backdoor opportunity. Grab the Heat on a huge game one spread for the NBA Finals.
ANALYSIS: It's going to be an uphill battle for the Heat to win this series, especially with how well Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have been playing. But arguably the third best player on Denver's roster is Aaron Gordon, who will likely be tasked defensively with slowing Jimmy Butler. A key to Gordon hitting this line is when he takes double-digit shot attempts. He was over this 21.5 prop in 35 of 40 regular season games in which he took 10+ shots. The same angle is 5 for 7 in the playoffs. Expect Gordon to post a line comparable to his regular season averages: 16-7-3 and comfortably hit our over.
ANALYSIS: Cleveland starts Tanner Bibee, opposed by Pablo Lopez of Minnesota. Bibee has had a great start to his big-league career with six starts, 34 1/3 innings, 2.88 ERA, 4.4% barrel rate and 35% hard-hit rate. Lopez sports a 4.11 ERA but a better 3.69 xFIP,, with seven of 11 quality starts. The Guardians rank dead last in MLB versus right-handed pitching. I have this total at 7. Take the Under.
ANALYSIS: Rest vs. rust is always the question when one team has been off for a longer period of time than its opponent. Denver has been off for nine days, and Miami just two. The Heat are going to try and slow the pace the best that they can. During the regular season, Denver ranked 24th in pace, and Miami was 29th. I think the rust could lead to a slow start for Denver's offense. My model is expecting just 92 possessions and a final total of 210.