Real Sociedad are sitting atop the table with the best defense in Group D, having only conceded once in three UCL matches. Meanwhile, Portuguese side Benfica have yet to find a goal. Real Sociedad should win this one with their overwhelming presence at home -- and could win by multiple goals.

Benfica have been an excellent road team in league play, going 5-0-1 with a 13-7 goal advantage, but have yet to score in UCL group play. Sociedad have a 15-9 goal edge in their home league games while being outscored 6-5 on the road. They play a more open game on their turf, which could allow Benfica to finally get on the board. My gut is telling me to take the Over, but my brain won’t let me. Sociedad are the better side, and Benfica are on the brink of elimination and have a huge match with Sporting this weekend. The Portuguese side won’t give in easily, but I expect Sociedad to eke out a 2-1 victory.

Benfica have yet to score in the Champions League and they managed just three shots on target in the 1-0 loss at home against Real Sociedad on Oct. 24. In addition, Benfica controlled just 37% of possession in that match and I think they’ll find it tougher to create chances on the road. Real Sociedad have conceded just one goal in this competition and five of their last seven matches have featured Under 2.5 goals.