Real Madrid are clear favorites, but Chelsea have some sneaky strength in midfield to beware of. Look, nobody is going to mistake Chelsea for a competent and put together team but they’re getting a big big price, and Real Madrid strength is itself fleeting, built on a history of improbably late second comebacks, that you don’t want to call luck, but probably aren’t repeatable. If Chelsea can pull off the upset it will be because Enzo Fernandez plays the ball relentlessly forward from midfield, and Chelsea’s struggling forwards finally put away a good chance. Also Madrid know they’ll be more than capable of going to London and getting a result in the second leg if they need it, so don’t be surprised if Chelsea nick a draw or even an unlikely win from a loose Madrid performance.

It’s a matchup of the past two European champions, but it probably won’t be terribly entertaining. The Blues are a disaster, so while they have repeatedly surprised teams in Champions League action, I don’t see it here. Especially on the road. They still play strong defense, but 19 of their 31 goals conceded in league play have come away from Stamford Bridge. They have failed to score in three straight matches and are winless in their past four. Chelsea might find some of that magic next week, but they’ll be digging out of a hole. Real Madrid have scored 12 goals in their past three games in all competitions. They might not blow out the Blues, but they’ll win.

Chelsea just lost on the road at Wolves, and now the Blues have to travel to the Bernabéu to take on Real Madrid. The English side is reeling after letting manager Graham Potter go and bringing in club legend Frank Lampard, who was already sacked once by Chelsea. Meanwhile, Real Madrid have won two of their last three games across all competitions, scoring 12 goals during that span. Plus, Chelsea have been shutout in each of their last three fixtures, a major reason why I’m backing Real Madrid on home soil. 

I know that Champions League magic exists, and some teams tend to show up more than others. But I refuse to back a Chelsea side playing under its third manager of the year, a team that hasn't scored in its past three matches, to beat Carlo Ancelotti at the Bernabeu. Real Madrid have been in high-flying form, with Karim Benzema peaking at the best possible time. Meanwhile, Chelsea have recently dropped points to Wolves, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Everton. Madrid defeated Chelsea in this same draw last year, and I expect to see a repeat, with a resounding victory for Los Blancos at home.