Chelsea come into the match needs two goals to advance, and on a 12 match streak of scoring a single goal or less. However, the Blues got off a season high 21 shots in the first leg against Dortmund and notched over 2.1 expected goals despite not finding the net. This is a side that has improved recently despite it not showing up in results yet. Dortmund on the other hand are just not a great defensive team. It's not only getting chances to Chelsea in their last meeting, but in the Bundesliga they've struggled against good teams, most recently conceding 2.4 xG against RB Leipzig last time out. Chelsea may not advance, but they'll win.

The end score of the previous matchup, a 1-0 loss for Chelsea, is deceiving for how the game actually played out. Watch/listen to the details of this pick on Early Edge in 5 at 4 p.m. ET.

Dortmund are clearly the better team right now and boast 10 straight victories in all competitions. The Blues did manage a goal and a victory Saturday against Leeds to snap a six-match winless run, but they are still a mess. Playing at Stamford Bridge is surely a plus, but they just can’t score goals. In 11 home EPL matches, they have scored 13 while conceding eight. Chelsea have managed surprises in the Champions League, but this team is highly unlikely to do it. Dortmund could eke out another 1-0 victory, but I might sprinkle something on 0-0 here, with BVB just looking to move on.

I know it seems flat-out blasphemous to back Chelsea in any capacity in their current form. They lost the first leg against Dortmund 1-0, but their expected goals in the match was over 2.2. Graham Potter's Chelsea side has nothing to play for other than the Champions League. They are an embarrassing 10th in the EPL table, so their only chance at redemption this season is via UCL success. The longer this 600-million-dollar squad is on the pitch together, the better it will eventually become. It could be a very ugly game, but Chelsea should find a victory here.