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2026 U.S. Senate control odds: Kalshi prediction markets show 98% probability for one party to win elections
Prediction markets like Kalshi allow you to trade on the outcome of the United States Midterms 2026
Election Day is here and there has already been over $200 million traded on who will control the United States Senate on Kalshi, where you can use the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus after $25 worth of trades. There are a total of 35 Senate seats up for grabs in Tuesday's midterm elections. Crucial swing races include Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs. Mike Rogers (R) in Michigan, James Talarico (D) vs. Ken Paxton (R) in Texas and Troy Jackson (D) vs. Susan Collins (R) in Maine. Democrats need to reach 51 seats to control the U.S. Senate, while Republicans must reach 50 for control with Vice President JD Vance serving as a tiebreaker. As of 8:45 p.m. ET, Kalshi gives the Democrats a 98% chance to control the Senate. Democrats are 100% to control the House of Representatives. The Senate majority could come down to races in Texas, Michigan, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, and Kansas. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:
You can trade on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. Senate races on prediction markets like Kalshi, with hundreds of political markets offered. That includes "Which Party will win the U.S. Senate?" Kalshi currently prices Democrats at $0.75 per share to win a majority and Republicans at $0.265 per share.
How to claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for $55 bonus
- Sign Up: Click Claim Bonus and enter code SPORTSLINE55 during registration.
- Verify: Pass identity verification (KYC)
- Deposit: Complete a deposit of $10+.
- Trade $25: Place $25 or more in trades within 30 days.
- Use Bonus Credits: Receive $55 in bonus trading credits and trade them within 7 days.
- Withdraw Cash Profits: Withdraw net cash profits from winning trades after completing the trade-through requirement.
Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:
Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 details
Promo Code | |
Welcome Offer | |
Promo Eligibility | New users 18+ physically located in a state where Kalshi operates (*Political and election contracts are unavailable in NV & WA. Sports contracts are unavailable in NV, MI & WA.) |
Last Verified | November 3, 2026 |
Kalshi U.S. Senate control prediction market pricing
Which party will win the US Senate?
Democrats: $0.98 per share
Republicans: $0.02 per share
Total traded at Kalshi: $234 million
Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:
Responsible Risk Management
It's a top priority for Kalshi to keep its users safe. Kalshi offers several risk management tools for traders that can be used at any time, including trading breaks, voluntary opt-out, and a personalized funding limit.
Prediction Markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) - an independent agency of the U.S. federal government.
Event contracts trading involves a risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Participation in prediction markets is subject to applicable eligibility requirements. Participation may be restricted or prohibited in certain jurisdictions and participants are responsible for ensuring their participation complies with applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction. Prices subject to change. Content is promotional and not a recommendation to trade.
Written by Andy Bryan
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