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2026 Michigan Senate race odds: Kalshi prediction markets show 78% probability for one side of Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers

Prediction markets like Kalshi allow you to trade on the outcome of the Michigan Senate winner

ByAndy Bryan·Updated: Nov 02, 2026 9:20AM ET·4 min read

The U.S. Senate race in Michigan is set for November 3 for the seat Democratic incumbent Gary Peters is vacating after deciding not to seek a third term. Abdul El-Sayed (D) and Mike Rogers (R) are running to fill the open seat. Over $26 million has been traded across the Michigan Senate winner prediction markets at Kalshi. Kalshi prices El-Sayed (D) at $0.78 per share to win, while Rogers (R) is trading at $0.23 per share. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

You can trade on the outcome of the 2026 US Senate races on prediction markets like Kalshi, with hundreds of political markets offered. 

Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

Abdul El-Sayed (D): $0.78 per share
Mike Rogers (R): $0.23 per share

Abdul El-Sayed (D): A physician and public health researcher, El-Sayed served as executive director of the Detroit Health Department from 2015 to 2017. He ran for governor of Michigan in the 2018 Democratic primary, finishing second with more than 340,000 votes. He returned to public service as director of the Wayne County Department of Health, Human and Veterans Services from 2023 to 2025, resigning in April 2025 ahead of his Senate campaign. He won the 2026 Democratic Senate primary on August 4 with 48.5% of the vote over U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

Mike Rogers (R): Rogers served in the U.S. Army from 1985 to 1989 and as an FBI special agent from 1989 to 1994. He was elected to the Michigan State Senate in 1994, serving until 2000, then won election to the U.S. House representing Michigan's 8th Congressional District, serving from 2001 to 2015 and chairing the House Intelligence Committee. He was the Republican Senate nominee in 2024, losing to Elissa Slotkin by fewer than 20,000 votes, and announced his second Senate campaign in April 2025. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

Democrats have held this Senate seat continuously since Carl Levin was first elected in 1978, with Gary Peters winning it in 2014 after Levin's retirement. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

It's a top priority for Kalshi to keep its users safe. Kalshi offers several risk management tools for traders that can be used at any time, including trading breaks, voluntary opt-out, and a personalized funding limit. 

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Written by Andy Bryan

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