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2026 Kansas Senate race odds: Kalshi prediction markets show 63% probability for one side of Roger Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton
Prediction markets like Kalshi allow you to trade on the outcome of the Kansas Senate winner
The U.S. Senate race in Kansas is set for November 3, with Republican incumbent Roger Marshall seeking a second term against Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor. More than $9 million has been traded across the Kansas Senate winner prediction markets at Kalshi. Kalshi prices Marshall (R) at $0.38 per share to win, while Hamilton (D) is trading at $0.63 per share. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:
You can trade on the outcome of the 2026 US Senate races on prediction markets like Kalshi, with hundreds of political markets offered.
How to claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for $55 bonus
- Sign Up: Click Claim Bonus and enter code SPORTSLINE55 during registration.
- Verify: Pass identity verification (KYC)
- Deposit: Complete a deposit of $10+.
- Trade $25: Place $25 or more in trades within 30 days.
- Use Bonus Credits: Receive $55 in bonus trading credits and trade them within 7 days.
- Withdraw Cash Profits: Withdraw net cash profits from winning trades after completing the trade-through requirement.
Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:
Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 details
Promo Code | |
Welcome Offer | |
Promo Eligibility | New users 18+ physically located in a state where Kalshi operates (*Political and election contracts are unavailable in NV & WA. Sports contracts are unavailable in NV, MI & WA.) |
Last Verified | November 2, 2026 |
Kalshi Kansas Senate winner prediction market pricing
Kansas Senate winner:
- Roger Marshall (R): $0.38 per share
- Adam Hamilton (D): $0.63 per share
Candidate history
Adam Hamilton (D): Hamilton is a United Methodist pastor who founded the country's largest United Methodist church. He won the Democratic nomination from a crowded field and describes himself as a centrist running on bringing people together. He raised $3.6 million in the first two months of his campaign, and a Libertarian, David Graham, is also on the ballot. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:
Roger Marshall (R): Marshall won this seat in 2020 with 53.2% of the vote. Marshall has called Hamilton "too woke for Kansas."Recent polling is mixed. An Emerson College poll from Sept. 15 to 16 had Hamilton ahead 45% to 43%, a YouGov poll from late September had him ahead 48% to 45%, and a co/efficient poll from Sept. 8 to 10 had Marshall ahead 49% to 44%. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:
Kansas's recent Senate voting history
Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932, and Hamilton is trying to become the first to do so since then. Marshall won the seat in 2020 and is seeking a second term. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:
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Event contracts trading involves a risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Participation in prediction markets is subject to applicable eligibility requirements. Participation may be restricted or prohibited in certain jurisdictions and participants are responsible for ensuring their participation complies with applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction. Prices subject to change. Content is promotional and not a recommendation to trade.
Written by Andy Bryan
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