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2026 U.S. Senate control odds: Kalshi prediction markets show 75% probability for one party to win elections

Prediction markets like Kalshi allow you to trade on the outcome of the United States Midterms 2026

ByAndy Bryan·Updated: Nov 02, 2026 10:17PM ET·4 min read

The U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm elections will be decided on November 3, with Democrats at $0.75 per share on Kalshi, up from $0.65 on Oct. 20, and Republicans at $0.265 per share, down from $0.36. More than $150 million has been traded on which party will win control of the Senate at Kalshi, and the Senate majority could come down to races in Texas, Michigan, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, and Kansas. Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

You can trade on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. Senate races on prediction markets like Kalshi, with hundreds of political markets offered. That includes "Which Party will win the U.S. Senate?" Kalshi currently prices Democrats at $0.75 per share to win a majority and Republicans at $0.265 per share.

Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

Democrats: $0.75 per share
Republicans: $0.25 per share
Total traded at Kalshi: $150.8 million

James Talarico (D): $0.75 per share
Ken Paxton (R): $0.26 per share
Read more about the Texas Senate race

Troy Jackson (D): $0.72 per share
Susan Collins (R): $0.27 per share

Abdul El-Sayed (D): $0.77 per share
Mike Rogers (R): $0.22 per share

Josh Turek (D): $0.51 per share
Ashley Hinson (R): $0.49 per share

Sherrod Brown (D): $0.70 per share
Jon Husted (R): $0.29 per share

Adam Hamilton (D): $0.62 per share
Roger Marshall (R): $0.37 per share

(Alaska has three Republicans and one Democrat on the ballot and uses ranked-choice voting. Kalshi is offering pricing on which party wins the seat.)

Democratic party: $0.71 per share
Republican party: $0.31 per share

Dan Osborn (I): $0.30 per share
Pete Ricketts (R): $0.69 per share
Cindy Burbank (D): $0.003 per share

Chris Pappas (D): $0.93 per share
John E Sununu (R): $0.06 per share

Roy Cooper (D): $0.97 per share
Michael Whatley (R): $0.026 per share

Annie Andrews (D): $0.32 per share
Darline Graham (R): $0.68 per share

Angie Nixon (D): $0.14 per share
Ashley Moody (R): $0.85 per share
Read more about the Florida Senate race

Peggy Flanagan (D): $0.92 per share
Michele Tafoya (R): $0.07 per share

Todd Achilles (I): $0.04 per share
Jim Risch (R): $0.95 per share
David Roth (D) $0.001 per share

Claim the Kalshi promo code SPORTSLINE55 for a $55 bonus here:

It's a top priority for Kalshi to keep its users safe. Kalshi offers several risk management tools for traders that can be used at any time, including trading breaks, voluntary opt-out, and a personalized funding limit. 

Prediction Markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) - an independent agency of the U.S. federal government.

Event contracts trading involves a risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. Participation in prediction markets is subject to applicable eligibility requirements. Participation may be restricted or prohibited in certain jurisdictions and participants are responsible for ensuring their participation complies with applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction. Prices subject to change. Content is promotional and not a recommendation to trade.

Written by Andy Bryan

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