The Flyers have a 3-2-1 record but are shooting an unsustainable 13.8%, making them the 4th luckiest team. In contrast, the Senators are the unluckiest at 2-4-1, struggling with a .823 save percentage and 10.1% shooting. Ottawa ranks 8th in shots per game (29.6) and has a +3.0 shot differential, while Philadelphia is last (21.7) and at -3.8. After two consecutive home losses, the Senators are expected to start Leevi Merilainen, who has a strong previous record (8-3, 1.99 GAA, .925 save percentage in 2024) despite a rough last outing where he allowed seven goals. Merilainen and his team should bounce back against an opponent that doesn't generate many shots and is playing its first road game in almost two weeks.