Offense has ruled the day in the Stanley Cup through the first 3 games; 23 goals are the most we've seen during that span going all the way back to 1982. While there were seven goals scored last game it was the lowest event game of the series from an underlying metrics standpoint. Edmonton has shaken up their lines for the pivotal Game 4 and given the embarrassing effort last game, I fully expect their emphasis to be on the defensive end of the ice in an attempt to insulate Skinner cutting down on undisciplined penalties and odd man rushes. Over has been the order of the day thus far but in my opinion that changes tonight.

At the moment, this doesn't feel like some of Edmonton's past series when the Oilers were slow to get going before recovering. The Game 3 meltdown in Sunrise alarmed a steady stream to the penalty box set up power play after power play for the Panthers. Last season, when the Oilers fell behind 3-0 in this finals matchup, it was because goal scoring had dried up, with just four in the first three games, before climbing back into the series by scoring 18 the next three games to force Game Seven. Repeat? Not sure. Stuart Skinner had also been holding up well in goal but he was pulled in Game 3, though he gets another chance tonight. Play Panthers on the Puck Line.

So constant has been this angle that It's hard to mistake this scoring trend in Panthers-Oilers games this season. At least seven goals have been scored in all five of the previous meetings. The Panthers, in particular, haven't slowed down in the Finals, racking up 14 goals in the first three games. Meanwhile, though Edmonton's offense has slowed the past five periods, at some point Connor McDavid can be expected to start scoring goals (he doesn't have any yet in the Finals). The bigger concern for the Oilers right now appears in goal, where Stuart Skinner might be regressing back into his Mr. Hyde routine, and pulled by Kris Knoblauch in Game 3 (Skinner gets one more chance tonight). Play Oilers-Panthers Over.

The Oilers might have a goaltending issue again and haven't named their starter yet -- if you aren't sure who your starting goalie is in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final is, you have a problem. And the team's best forward not named Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, is not healthy. He was a game-time call for Game 3 and played but was a complete non-factor. He's a GTC again tonight. Florida can become only the fifth team in the past 40 years to win three straight games in back-to-back Finals. The Panthers can also become the sixth team in NHL history to score five or more goals in three straight games during a Stanley Cup Final.

After another successful winning regular season, I have struggled in the Postseason, so keep that in mind. I like the Edmonton Oilers to bounce back after allowing six goals and committing stupid penalties while playing one of their worst games in recent memory. The entire team will play with a lot more urgency. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were both held without a point. If history suggests, the Oilers will likely play much better, as they are 7-2 in all Game 4s since 2022, while Florida is just 3-5 despite reaching the Finals in three straight seasons. The Panthers have won two games in overtime. Edmonton has outshot the Panthers in every game. Play Edmonton at plus money.