There's a nice intersection of trends we tend to care about this time of year that point the arrow in favor of Philadelphia tonight. For one thing, Montreal is returning home off a five-game road trip, and a few big wins, which tends to bring about a dud of a game upon a team's return. Factor in that Philly really needs this win, and that's the place to go tonight. The Flyers have just a one point lead over Washington in the Metropolitan division, and are just a few losses away from falling out of the playoff race entirely. Expect Philadelphia to do all they can to avoid that happening. They've beaten Montreal in two straight meetings.

This recently flipped at FanDuel to 6.5, so I sorta feel obligated. Philly's Samuel Ersson held the Habs to two goals in a 3-2 shootout win earlier this season. Counterpart Cayden Primeau tends to be either really good or really bad, so why just a half unit. He has been very good in two of his past three. The Under is 7-2 in the Canadiens' past nine. The SL Model projects this as the lowest-scoring game of the night.