Mads Sogaard has really turned it around in his last two starts, keeping the Bolts and Bruins to just two goals each. Still, Sogaard has a 3.88 GAA in his last eight, so I'm not fully convinced he'll lock it down against the Panthers tonight. On the other hand, Sergei Bobrovsky is coming off two home losses, in which he gave up four and five goals. If I had more faith in the Panthers, I'd play them on the money line as well, but I think I'll stick with the total here. The over has hit in seven of the last eight Panthers games and in 10 consecutive Senators home games. Defense has been the Achilles heel for Florida and Ottawa, so I think we see more of an emphasis on offense as these two teams fight it out. We very well could get a push here, but I'll bet on at least seven goals to be scored tonight. Take the over.

There's some serious juice here, but Ottawa is covering in an astounding 84% of my model's simulations. If you're looking for a bit more return on your investment, consider the +115 moneyline. The Senators are winning in 67% of my model's sims. To make a long story short -- Ottawa's the play here.