Petr Mrazek's 5-14-2 record and 3.95 GAA is definitely rough, but I'm not sure it warrants the Leafs being priced at an absurd -650. Still, we'll likely see the Leafs take advantage of this struggling Hawks defense, or lack thereof. I'd typically be hard pressed to go against Ilya Samsonov who's 15-2-1 at home. That said, I vividly remember a brutal loss on Caps ML last season against the Hawks, where Samsonov fell 5-4 in OT. Chicago has doubled their number of wins since the new year, albeit from eight to 16. I wouldn't be surprised to see them make Toronto's offense work a bit harder than anticipated tonight. Take the over at even money.

I don't really like -1.5 pucklines but I'm in part picking this game to let you know that the Leafs are the biggest ML favorites of the season and frankly the biggest favorites they have been that I can find in recent years. Auston Matthews is set to return tonight, while the Hawks were just dominated 4-0 in Montreal on Tuesday and haven't won in eight tries in the second of a B2B this year. I was tempted to take them +450 just because wow that's a big number but not with the awful Petr Mrazek (a former Leaf) in net. So we'll do the PL at -180.