Had no plans to play this rematch of the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals, but the Avalanche just ruled out superstar blueliner Cale Makar and that's enough for me to back the Bolts at home as they surely would like a little payback for the six-game Finals loss, the finale on home ice. Tampa Bay has looked quite terrible in its first two games out of the break but might have been looking ahead to this one. The Bolts are 20-4-2 on home ice this season and have scored three or more goals in seven consecutive home games and 18 of the last 20 there.

The Lightning have dropped two straight and could have been looking ahead to this game. The Avalanche defeated Tampa Bay in the Stanley Cup Finals last year. The Lightning are ranked No. 10 in face-off win percentage (51.8), while Colorado is ranked No. 27 (46.4) this season. The Avalanche have a big revenge game against Florida on deck. Take the Lighting.