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Tue 05/17 | 11:00 PM UTC | Sunrise
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Tampa Bay Lightning 65-39, +219 ML
TB +1.5-160
TB +145
Over 6.5-115
Florida Panthers 62-30, +123 ML
FLA -1.5+140
FLA -170
Under 6.5-105

Expert Picks

Tampa Bay 4 @ Florida 1 | 05/17 | 11:00 PM UTC

Florida -150

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Tampa Bay beat Florida in six games in last year's playoffs, but this year's Panthers are better. Plus, it sounds as if the Lightning will not have forward Brayden Point for at least Game 1 due to injury -- he was hurt in Game 7 vs. Toronto, tried to come back and play but was in clear major pain. He was arguably the team's best player in the series (won Game 6 in OT) and led the NHL in goals each of the past two postseasons. Even if Point somehow guts it out, we have to take Florida at home at a reasonable price. The Panthers are on an extra day of rest and had to go six games in Round 1 compared to Tampa's seven.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+2892 138-73-4 IN LAST 215 NHL PICKS
+1309 24-8 IN LAST 32 FLA ML PICKS
+1368 40-20 IN LAST 60 TB ML PICKS

Season Splits

65-39, +219 ML
62-30, +123 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
61%
55-34, -232
62-26, +523
70%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
57%
26-19, -169
36-8, +877
81%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
37%
6-10, -361
59-21, +744
73%
When Line was +124 to +154
MONEY LINE
When Line was -178 to -148
0%
0-1, -100
13-4, +400
76%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
37%
6-10, -361
36-8, +877
81%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
47%
19-21, -531
20-7, +743
74%
vs Teams Allowing >2.9 GPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing 2.6 to 2.9 GPG
64%
35-19, -115
10-7, -100
58%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
58%
45-32, -712
55-19, +827
74%
vs FLA
HEAD TO HEAD
vs TB
50%
2-2, -8
2-2, -40
50%
when Andrei Vasilevskiy starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Sergei Bobrovsky starts
62%
44-26, -13
47-12, +1138
79%