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Sat 05/14 | 11:00 PM UTC | Toronto
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Tampa Bay Lightning 65-39, +219 ML
TB +1.5-210
TB +115
Over 6.5+105
Toronto Maple Leafs 57-31, +218 ML
TOR -1.5+175
TOR -135
Under 6.5-125

Expert Picks

NHL | Tampa Bay 2 @ Toronto 1 | 05/14 | 11:00 PM UTC

UNDER 6.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: No reason to wait on this total -- yes, I realize five of the six games of this series have seen at least seven goals scored, but historically Game 7s are low-scoring affairs. Tampa Bay played four of them last year and there weren't more than four goals scored in any. Obviously helped that Andrei Vasilevskiy shut out the opponent in all. Definitely not saying that will happen here. Absolutely will not pick a side, though, as I have a fondness for both franchises (do want Leafs to win as that city deserves it) and simply want to enjoy the game. Agree/disagree? Twitter: @jordanpaytonsn1

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+300 4-1-1 IN LAST 6 TB O/U PICKS
+640 10-3-2 IN LAST 15 TOR O/U PICKS

Season Splits

65-39, +219 ML
57-31, +218 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
61%
54-34, -345
57-31, +218
64%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
56%
25-19, -282
33-11, +660
75%
As Underdog or Even
STATUS
As Favorite
33%
5-10, -474
52-23, +477
69%
When Line was -107 to +123
MONEY LINE
When Line was -144 to -114
36%
4-7, -265
13-5, +498
72%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
33%
5-10, -474
32-11, +560
74%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
46%
18-21, -644
26-15, +460
63%
vs Teams Allowing >2.9 GPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >2.9 GPG
64%
34-19, -228
33-14, +230
70%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
57%
44-32, -825
50-25, +377
66%
vs TOR
HEAD TO HEAD
vs TB
50%
5-5, -53
5-5, -57
50%
when Andrei Vasilevskiy starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Jack Campbell starts
62%
43-26, -126
36-17, +283
67%