ANALYSIS: The Lightning have been money following a loss the past few postseasons and I don’t think they’ll go out at home after their run the last two seasons. The Maple Leafs have had trouble closing out teams in the past as they have yet to win a series in the Auston Matthews era. This could finally be their year to advance, but I don’t think they do it on the road. I like the Lightning at home coming off a loss.