The Penguins are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and 21-5-4 at home this season. The Leafs are just 5-4-1 in the last 10 games and 16-13-1 on the road this season. The Penguins score the sixth most home goals in the league with 3.43 goals per game and they give up the fifth fewest goals per game with 2.37. The Maple Leafs do lead the league in road goals per game with 3.63 but they give up 3.37 per game. The Penguins won handily the first time these teams met, take the value in the Penguins at home.

My model says that the Maple Leafs cover the spread nearly 80 percent of the time, so you're getting excellent value playing them at this spread. Toronto has won six of the last nine meetings between the teams. John Tavares has been hot of late, collecting five goals and five assists in his last eight contests. Take the Maple Leafs +1.5 goals at -211.