Tyreek Hill NFL Week 18 props, odds: Dolphins receiver needs 248 yards vs. Bills to break Calvin Johnson's single-season league record

For parts of the current NFL campaign, Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill was on pace to break the NFL single-season receiving yardage record of 1,964 yards set by Detroit Lions future Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson in 2013, who did it in 16 games. Hill has missed one game this year and that has put him well behind Johnson's pace. Hill now needs 248 yards in Sunday's AFC East winner-take-all game vs. Buffalo to break the mark. DraftKings (and other books) are listing him at +3000 to do it, which is about a 3.2% chance.

If you are wondering, and I was, there have been 34 occasions in league history of a player having at least 248 receiving yards in a game, per Pro Football Reference. The NFL record is 336 by former Los Angeles Ram Flipper Anderson on Nov., 26, 1989, vs. New Orleans. Hill's career high is 269 yards on Nov. 29, 2020, against Tampa Bay, while Hill was still with Kansas City. That's the only time he's topped 219 yards.

With an NFL-leading 1,717 yards this season, Hill has set a franchise record and become the first player in NFL history with multiple seasons of at least 1,700 – he had 1,710 last year. DraftKings is listing Hill at over/under 94.5 yards for Sunday, while the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him for 88 yards on 6.3 catches. Our new AI projection has Hill totaling 149.5 yards.

When Miami was trounced 48-20 in Week 4 in Buffalo, Hill was held to just 58 yards on three catches, although the Bills were a lot healthier on defense than they are now. Pro Bowl cornerback Tre'Davious White was in the lineup, but White suffered a season-ending torn Achilles tendon while covering Hill on a fourth-and-1 play in the last minute of the third quarter.

Hill has faced the Bills in six regular-season games dating to his Chiefs days and has just 284 yards on 31 catches without sniffing even 100 yards in a single game. His high against them is 69 yards. DK also offers alternate receiving yardage props on Hill with the highest number at 120-plus, and that's a +195 longshot.

As Hill goes, the Dolphins generally go. He's had five of his six worst games this season in Miami losses, averaging just 69 receiving yards per game with one touchdown and catching just 68.1% of his targets in those outings. He recorded 76 yards last week vs. Baltimore, but it took 12 targets to get there and Hill dropped a sure TD pass from Tua Tagovailoa.

"Speaking for myself, I played probably one of the worst games of my career," said Hill, who did join Antonio Brown (2013-15) and current Dolphins wide receivers coach Wes Welker (2007-09) as the only NFL players with 110 or more receptions in three consecutive seasons.

It's not a sure thing Hill wins the NFL yardage title. He's only 66 yards on up red-hot Cowboys wideout CeeDee Lamb, who comes off a 227-yard game vs. Detroit. Hill still has a shot at NFL Offensive Player of the Year but might need to make history to do it as he's a +175 second favorite behind Christian McCaffrey (-300), although McCaffrey will sit out Week 18 in a meaningless 49ers game.

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