Russell Wilson trade to Broncos odds fallout: Denver AFC third favorite with stunning deal; Seahawks now NFC long shots, could eye Mitchell Trubisky
Earlier today, Aaron Rodgers agreed to a contract extension to stay with the Green Bay Packers. He was among the Denver Broncos' potential trade options this offseason, but apparently target No. 1 was Seattle's Russell Wilson, and in a stunner the Seahawks have sent Wilson to the Mile High City pending a physical and Wilson's approval, which will happen. The Seahawks will receiver multiple first-round draft picks, plus additional picks and players. Denver does visit Seattle in the 2022 regular season -- go ahead and pencil that in for a Sunday or Monday night.
Via Adam Schefter, the trade details: Seattle gets QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, DL Shelby Harris, two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a fifth-round pick. Denver gets Wilson and a fourth-round pick.
Wilson gives the Broncos their first true franchise quarterback since Peyton Manning retired after winning Super Bowl 50. Denver hasn't made the playoffs since and has finished with a losing record the past five seasons starting the likes of Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, Lock and Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater, who was 7-7 last year as a starter, is a free agent.
Wilson was 104-53-1 as a regular-season starter with Seattle – more wins than any quarterback ever posted during his first 10 seasons in the league -- and the team hadn't finished with a losing record under him until this past season when he missed some time due to injury and the Hawks ended 7-10 (6-8 under Wilson). Seattle won Super Bowl XLVIII in Wilson's second year, shredding Manning's Broncos 43-8.
Denver has a Super Bowl caliber-defense and good skill position players such as running back Javonte Williams (fellow RB Melvin Gordon is a free agent), and receivers Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and Courtland Sutton (their Fantasy 2022 profiles just got a lot better). The team simply needed a competent QB.
The Broncos moved from +2500 to win Super Bowl 57 to +1400 at Caesars Sportsbook with this trade. They are now +700 third favorites to win the AFC (were +1200) behind Buffalo (+380) and Kansas City (+450). To win the AFC West, the Broncos are +260 behind the Chiefs (-110).
One of the picks headed to Seattle will be Denver's No. 9 overall this year, which could allow the Seahawks to draft their QB of the future. The Seahawks didn't have a first-round pick because of the Jamal Adams trade with the Jets in July 2020. Don't be shocked if the Seahawks sign someone like Mitchell Trubisky as a bridge QB. Maybe Lock can serve as that, though, for 2022.
Seattle rose from +4000 to win Super Bowl 57 to +10000 and is a +3500 long shot to win the NFC. Below are the SportsLine Projection Model sims post-trade.
| DENVER | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| Before Trade | 7.0 | 41.20% | 4.50% | 14.40% | 0.50% | 0.20% |
| w/ Wilson | 9.0 | 52.90% | 17.80% | 44.00% | 2.90% | 1.30% |
| Difference | 2.0 | 11.80% | 13.30% | 29.60% | 2.40% | 1.10% |
| SEATTLE | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| Before Trade | 10.4 | 61.20% | 31.10% | 72.70% | 12.30% | 5.00% |
| w/o Wilson | 7.3 | 42.90% | 3.60% | 18.70% | 1.10% | 0.30% |
| Difference | -3.1 | -18.20% | -27.50% | -54.00% | -11.20% | -4.70% |
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