Aaron Rodgers returning to Packers: Green Bay's Super Bowl 57, NFC championship odds shorten significantly
Aaron Rodgers was always expected to decide by today, the NFL's franchise tag deadline, whether to return to the Green Bay Packers for the 2022 season, demand a trade or retire, and the four-time NFL MVP will stay with the team thanks to reported a new four-year, $200 million deal with $153 million guaranteed that makes him the highest-paid player in league history. The Packers immediately went from +1500 to +1000 third favorites at Caesars Sportsbook to win Super Bowl 57.
With his new deal, Rodgers will be the first NFL player to hit the $400 million career earnings mark and is now guaranteed to have made $445 million. Since Rodgers' first NFL start in 2008, he is the most profitable QB against the spread in the league (with Tom Brady retired) as he would have made a $100 bettor on every Packers game nearly $3,500.
That Rodgers is returning means it's a 100 percent lock that the Packers slap the franchise tag on All-Pro receiver Davante Adams today barring agreeing on a long-term deal with him. Adams' future was always tied to Rodgers.
NFL win totals won't be out for at least a few weeks for the 2022 season, but the SportsLine Projection Model (see below) forecasts Green Bay for 10.3 victories, a nearly 70 percent chance of repeating in the NFC North, almost 19 percent for the NFC title and 9.2 percent to win Super Bowl 57.
At Caesars, the Packers as noted are now +1000 to win Super Bowl 57 (equates to 9.1 percent), +450 to win the NFC (equates to 18.2 percent) and -225 in the NFC North (69.2 percent).
Green Bay has been the NFC's top seed each of the past two postseasons but upset in this year's Divisional Round by San Francisco and in the NFC title game following the 2020 season by Tampa Bay. Rodgers still has reached (and won) only a single Super Bowl in his Hall of Fame career.
To win a record-tying fifth NFL MVP Award in 2022 (Peyton Manning won five) and third in a row, Rodgers is a +700 co-favorite with Patrick Mahomes. Rodgers will play his first-ever London game in 2022 with Green Bay headed overseas for the first time in the regular season.
Now it will be interesting to see what the Denver Broncos do as they were ready to give up just about anything to trade for Rodgers. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans also had been linked in possible trades. See their sims below with/without Rodgers.
| DENVER | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| Current Outlook | 7.0 | 41.20% | 4.50% | 14.40% | 0.50% | 0.20% |
| w/ Aaron Rodgers | 9.0 | 52.90% | 21.90% | 47.50% | 2.50% | 1.20% |
| Difference | 2.0 | 11.80% | 17.40% | 33.10% | 2.00% | 1.00% |
| | | | | | | |
| PITTSBURGH | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| Current Outlook | 8.9 | 52.40% | 12.60% | 35.70% | 1.90% | 0.90% |
| w/ Aaron Rodgers | 10.5 | 61.80% | 35.50% | 70.40% | 9.00% | 4.50% |
| Difference | 1.6 | 9.40% | 22.90% | 34.70% | 7.10% | 3.60% |
| | | | | | | |
| TENNESSEE | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| Current Outlook | 10.3 | 60.60% | 53.30% | 76.00% | 6.40% | 3.10% |
| w/ Aaron Rodgers | 11.0 | 64.70% | 75.30% | 90.20% | 25.50% | 13.30% |
| Difference | 0.7 | 4.10% | 22.00% | 14.20% | 19.10% | 10.20% |
| GREEN BAY | WIN | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
| w/ Aaron Rodgers | 10.3 | 60.60% | 69.60% | 83.30% | 18.90% | 9.20% |
| w/o Rodgers | 7.7 | 45.30% | 24.50% | 38.10% | 2.00% | 0.60% |
| Difference | -2.6 | -15.30% | -45.10% | -45.20% | -16.90% | -8.60% |
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