Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott moves into favored role on 2023 NFL MVP odds; Dallas still needs help to surpass Eagles in NFC East
Dak Prescott is the new NFL MVP favorite.
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Even if we agree that the Dallas Cowboys are America's Team as the NFL's most popular franchise, a Cowboy hasn't won NFL MVP honors since future Hall of Fame running back Emmitt Smith did so in 1993. That may change this season as quarterback Dak Prescott is now the consensus favorite to win MVP after leading a blowout of the NFC East-leading Eagles on Sunday at AT&T Stadium. Philly still controls the division, however.
At BetMGM, Prescott was a +4000 longshot to win MVP a month ago. He was down to +1800 three weeks ago, +800 two weeks ago, +300 last week and is now the +150 leader, just ahead of 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (+200). The Cowboys have been unstoppable at home this season and continued their dominance in Arlington with a 33-13 win over Philadelphia on Sunday night. Prescott threw for 271 yards and two scores with no picks in the team's 15th consecutive win at AT&T Stadium.
Prescott was vastly better than Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, who is now +650 for MVP, marking just the second time that Prescott has ever beaten a team at least eight games over .500 with said team having its starting QB. It last happened for Prescott and the Cowboys in 2018, a victory over Drew Brees and the 10-1 Saints. In the past eight games, in which Dallas is 7-1, Prescott has 23 TD passes and just two picks, joining these players as the only QBs with at least 23 touchdowns passes and two interceptions or fewer in an eight-game span in a season.
QBs | Win MVP? |
Dak Prescott (2023) | +150 favorite |
Aaron Rodgers (2020) | Yes |
Lamar Jackson (2019) | Yes |
Russell Wilson (2015) | No |
Aaron Rodgers (2014) | Yes |
Tom Brady (2007) | Yes |
Prescott has thrown at least two touchdown passes in each of the last seven games, tying a team single-season mark held by Tony Romo, and his 28 TDs lead the NFL. Don Meredith had a 12-game stretch with at least two touchdown passes over the 1965 and '66 seasons to hold the overall team record. The Cowboys (10-3) have eight 20-point wins this season, tied for the third-most in a season in NFL history.
But Prescott has a 2-4 mark in the postseason and the Cowboys have not gotten past the divisional around of the playoffs. As dominant as Dallas has been at home of late, that's why it's so crucial for the team to win the NFC East and get at least one home playoff game. Sunday night's win split the season series with the Eagles, but Philadelphia (10-3) would still win the East if it wins out, even though it currently loses the tiebreaker.
Philly is in Seattle on Monday in Week 15, followed by home games against the Giants and Cardinals before finishing the season at the Giants. It's a pretty easy schedule. Dallas has it much tougher: At Buffalo, at Miami, vs. Detroit, at Washington.
DraftKings has the Eagles at -350 to win the division and Cowboys at +270. The SportsLine Projection Model gives Philadelphia a 69.6% chance (equates to -230) and Dallas 30.4% (+230) The teams have a nearly equal shot -- 17.69% for Eagles, 17.45% for Cowboys – of winning the NFC title.
San Francisco (10-3) would be the NFC's No. 1 seed as things stand and will be if it wins out. The 49ers own head-to-head wins over both Philadelphia and Dallas. The Niners are -175 at DraftKings to get the top seed and given a 74% shot to do so by the model. The Eagles are +170 for the top seed and the Cowboys are +800. Only Detroit (+4000) is also a betting option, but the Lions might be fading.
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