Bijan Robinson 2023 NFL Draft odds: Texas running back favored to land in Atlanta with No. 8 pick, but Eagles looming at No. 10

If it were 2013 instead of 2023, former Texas All-American running back Bijan Robinson might be a top-three pick in the first round of Thursday's NFL Draft -- he's extremely talented and highly rated by scouts, but NFL teams have downgraded the importance of the position overall. Tailbacks have such a short shelf life and good ones can be found in later rounds. Where might Robinson land? DraftKings favors the Falcons at +150, and they currently hold the No. 8 pick. The Eagles, who pick 10th, are next at +300.

The last team to take a running back in the top 10 of the draft was the New York Giants, who selected Saquon Barkley at No. 2 in 2018. Barkley is a very good player, but the Giants have largely stunk since then. New York finally broke out last season when quarterback Daniel Jones took a big step forward and the team earned a wild card spot. Last year, the first running back off the board was Virginia Tech's Breece Hall at No. 36 the New York Jets. He was the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 7.

Atlanta had the No. 3 rushing attack in the NFL last year, in large part because the Falcons had such a conservative offense under QBs Marcus Mariota (now gone) and Desmond Ridder. Is running back really a major need as early as No. 8? Tyler Allgeier was a fifth-round pick last year and rushed for 1,035 yards as a rookie. The team still has Cordarrelle Patterson at the position as well.

Robinson won the Doak Walker Award in 2022 at Texas as the nation's top running back and was a first-team All-American and All-Big 12. He ranked sixth in the FBS with 1,580 rushing yards (6.1 yards per carry) and tied for fifth with 18 rushing touchdowns in 12 games. His 113 tackles avoided were the most by any FBS player in past five seasons. The 5-foot-11, 215-pounder opted not to play in the Longhorns' bowl game. Robinson is ranked as the No. 5 overall prospect on the CBS Sports Big Board. NFL.com gives a comp of the Raiders' Josh Jacobs, the 2022 NFL rushing king and 24th overall pick in the 2019 draft.

Georgia pass-rusher Nolan Smith is the +400 second-favorite to be the No. 8 overall pick – for betting purposes on that prop, it doesn't matter who actually picks there if Atlanta trades out. A defensive lineman/edge rusher is the -115 favorite to be the position of the Falcons' first drafted player (regardless of where they pick), followed by running back at +150.

As for the Eagles, they did lose leading rusher Miles Sanders to free agency, and NFL Network's James Palmer reported this week that many NFC teams are terrified that Philly could land Robinson to pair with Jalen Hurts. "The thought around the league is this would be a very difficult offense to stop," Palmer said. No kidding.

Philadelphia holds the Nos. 10 and 30 picks, so it probably could jump ahead of Atlanta if it felt the need. That a running back is the position of the Eagles' first player chosen is +300, behind offensive lineman (-115) and defensive lineman/edge rusher (+110).

It certainly will depend on where Robinson lands, but don't be surprised if he opens as the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year betting favorite. He should start and be a big part of any team's offense from Day 1, while you perhaps can't say the same for many of the first-round QBs or receivers. 

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