The Texans might switch QBs, elevating Kyle Allen over Davis Mills, but it shouldn't make a difference. They gave their best player, Dameon Pierce, just 10 carries in last week's 23-10 home loss to Washington, and the No. 3 overall pick, corner Derek Stingley Jr., might sit out again with a hamstring issue. That likely would prove fatal versus the high-flying Dolphins. Miami comes off its bye with Tua Tagovailoa leading the NFL in passer rating (118.4). Houston averages 15.9 points per game. I'll bank on Miami getting into the 30s with Mike McDaniel staying aggressive.

The Dolphins come out of their bye on top of the AFC East and with perhaps the best offense in football. The Texans just averaged 2.7 yards per play against the Commanders and have thrown for less than 140 yards in three of their last four games despite losing all of them decisively. I can't see the Texans offense scoring enough to keep up with the Dolphins in Miami, especially after they looked lifeless against a Washington team in a tough spot last week. The Dolphins defense should be able to generate turnovers as well, setting up some short fields to help build their lead. I have this line projected at -16.5, so I still think Miami isn't getting enough credit.