This is probably a bit of a contrarian play, but my model has high confidence in its projections here and makes this total closer to 51.5. The Eagles certainly have played better defensively at home both this season and last, and I'm not sure if their offense is trustworthy. The Chiefs likely will get their scoring done, but the majority of their games last season failed to surpass 54 points. I think we see this one sneak in just Under the total.

This game has Chiefs written all over it, especially getting in below the 7 number. A two-game losing streak and a desperate need to get things back on track, Kansas City should be going for the jugular from beginning to end against Philadelphia. Couple that with a hospital trip for their head coach...and returning to his former team, this is where the Chiefs get right. I won't ride their spreads too terribly much, but if there were ever a time to do it, it's now. Below 7 of course.

The Chiefs have played three strong teams (Browns, Ravens, Chargers) and could easily be 3-0. Philly will be on a short week and already has suffered key injuries, most notably losing Brandon Graham. I'll buck Kansas City's horrific ATS performance lately and lay the reasonable number.