All I hear about this game is how the Broncos haven’t played anyone good while compiling a 3-0 SU and ATS record. It’s true. But I’m making this bet because of the Broncos' execution in those games, on both sides of ball. Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t make turnovers. He's a conservative grinder who just wins games. And the Ravens are a 66-yard field goal away from being 1-2. The Ravens convert only 30 percent of third downs, second to worst in the NFL. Broncos.

Guess I will take the point instead of the moneyline on the off chance the Ravens do lose by one or it ends in a tie. I'm just not buying the 3-0 Broncos yet considering their putrid opposition so far. They also are now down two top wideouts in Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, plus two starting offensive linemen are iffy Sunday. Baltimore got three starting defenders off the COVID list this week and also might see the season debut of first-round rookie WR Rashod Bateman, although he may need a week of conditioning first.

Last week was clearly a sleepy spot for the Ravens, which is why we were on the Lions as big underdogs. Still, Baltimore could've had a huge day offensively if not for a few drops. The Broncos have looked incredible but they've played maybe the worst three teams in the league. They also haven't faced a mobile QB in a while, and it could be a culture shock going up against Lamar Jackson. We don't know how good the Broncos are at this point, but this line is telling you they're very good. That gives us plenty of value fading them in case they're a bit of a paper tiger, while Baltimore can still compete and win if Denver actually is good.