Green Bay has scored 30-plus points in four of its last five games and the Over is 4-1-1 in its six road contests. The Packers' offense ranks second in DVOA, and they are 20th on defense. The Over is 5-1 over in Detroit's last six games, and its defense has allowed 27 points in five of the last six. The Lions' offense is serviceable at 15th in DVOA and 12th in yards per play, but their defense ranks 32nd in DVOA.

Aaron Jones and Aaron Rodgers spurred a 42-21 Packers win in the first meeting, and I'm expecting more of the same Sunday despite Detroit's coaching change. Jones (5.2 ypc) is playing for a contract; he had 236 yards and three touchdowns in the Week 2 blowout. The Lions just gave up 30 points to the Bears. Lay the points.