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nfl - Sun 11/29 | 6:00 PM UTC | Bills Stadium |

L.A. Chargers @ Buffalo

Odds by William Hill Sportsbook
ATS
BUF -4.5
-6
Over / Under
51
51.5
ML
BUF -215
-240

Matchup breakdown

LAC
Buffalo
PROJ SCORE
6-9
W-L
14-3
8-7
ATS W-L
11-6
8-7
O/U
11-4
-3.9
PT DIFF
7.6
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Past Expert Picks

Larry Hartstein

Senior Analyst
Thu 11/26

L.A. Chargers @ Buffalo | 11/29 | 6:00 PM UTC

OVER 52.5

LOSS

The weather looks good, with temperatures in the mid-40s and little wind, and I'm expecting an entertaining shootout between Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. Look for the Over to improve to 8-0 in L.A.'s last eight games.

+433 21-15-2 IN LAST 38 NFL PICKS
+95 2-1 IN LAST 3 LAC O/U PICKS

Stephen Oh

Data Scientist
Sun 11/29

L.A. Chargers @ Buffalo | 11/29 | 6:00 PM UTC

Buffalo -4.5

WIN

My model says the Bills cover 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value with Buffalo at this number. The Chargers defense gives up a ton of points. These are the point totals allowed by the Chargers since October: 28, 29, 31, 31, 29, 30, and 38. Buffalo averages 27, is coming off a bye and has put up 30 and 44 in its past two games. In addition, the Chargers have made two previous trips to the East Coast this season and lost by seven and eight points. I'm on the Bills.

+185 3-1 IN LAST 4 BUF ATS PICKS
+69 4-3 IN LAST 7 LAC ATS PICKS

Mike Tierney

Top Dog
Tue 11/24

L.A. Chargers @ Buffalo | 11/29 | 6:00 PM UTC

Buffalo -5.5

WIN

Gotta love a home team stepping out of a bye week against a struggling visitor journeying cross-country. The Chargers are 1-4 straight-up on the road, and their three victims are a combined 3-26-1. Rookie QB Justin Herbert has been eye-catching, but recent injuries to running backs have hamstrung him. The Bills were afforded an extra week to put the Hail Murray loss at Arizona behind them. QB Josh Allen can look forward to strafing a suspect secondary.

+450 22-16-3 IN LAST 41 NFL ATS PICKS
+674 11-4-1 IN LAST 16 BUF ATS PICKS
+502 15-9-1 IN LAST 25 LAC ATS PICKS

R.J. White

Super Stat Geek
Sat 11/28

L.A. Chargers @ Buffalo | 11/29 | 6:00 PM UTC

OVER 52.5

LOSS

This game features two teams that have been cashing Overs all season, and I think it continues this week. The Chargers should be able to score on many of their drives against a struggling Bills defense that ranks 26th on third downs and 28th in points per drive, and with the Chargers placing Melvin Ingram on injured reserve late in the week, the Bills should have an easier time throwing the ball in this matchup with a team that has given up 28 points or more in seven straight games.

+1670 78-55-5 IN LAST 138 NFL PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 LAC O/U PICKS

R.J. White

Super Stat Geek
Fri 11/27

L.A. Chargers @ Buffalo | 11/29 | 6:00 PM UTC

L.A. Chargers +4.5

LOSS

This is a good spot to take the Chargers, playing as mid-range underdogs against a good but flawed Bills team. The Chargers offense has been incredible outside of their game against the Dolphins, and they can score points against a Bills defense that's struggled this year. The Chargers defense has given up a lot of points lately but doesn't have the yardage totals to match, so there could be some positive regression in store. And the Chargers can extend drives with their seventh-ranked third-down offense against the Bills' 26th-ranked third-down defense. Both these teams are capable of rallying and making it a close game late, so if you can get more than four in this type of matchup, take the points.

+1670 78-55-5 IN LAST 138 NFL PICKS
+473 8-3 IN LAST 11 LAC ATS PICKS

Adam Silverstein

Florida Favorite
Sun 11/29

L.A. Chargers @ Buffalo | 11/29 | 6:00 PM UTC

Buffalo -4

WIN

The Chargers have only defeated the Jets and Jaguars over their last nine games. In that span, the only spreads they've covered have been 7.5 points or higher. The Bills are coming off a bye week against a Los Angeles team that has proven to play worse when it travels (0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS). Austin Ekeler’s return does offer some angst, but the defensive injuries concern me far more. This is going to be a high-scoring game, so keep an eye on the over, but I’m going to roll with Buffalo and Josh Allen to take care of the injured visitors.

+498 15-9-1 IN LAST 25 NFL ATS PICKS
+131 8-6 IN LAST 14 BUF ATS PICKS

Hank Goldberg

Hammer
Wed 11/25

L.A. Chargers @ Buffalo | 11/29 | 6:00 PM UTC

Buffalo -5.5

WIN

I like the Bills a lot. With the Dolphins losing last week, Buffalo can put some distance between them in the AFC East race. Josh Allen should have a huge game against this Chargers' defense. Buffalo is rested and should win by at least a touchdown.

+535 23-16-4 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS
+723 15-7-2 IN LAST 24 BUF ATS PICKS
+129 6-4 IN LAST 10 LAC ATS PICKS

Bill Marzano

Veteran Handicapper
Sun 11/29

L.A. Chargers @ Buffalo | 11/29 | 6:00 PM UTC

OVER 51.5

LOSS

These are two really good offenses. Chargers QB Justin Herbert has thrown a rookie-record two TD passes in seven straight games. Bills QB Josh Allen also is having a great year both throwing and running the football. The Chargers' defense is vulnerable, and so is the Bills' against QBs that are mobile. I think this game will be played in the 30s and that both QBs pass for over 400 yards and at least three TDs. The Over has cashed in seven straight for the Chargers and is 7-2-1 on the season for Buffalo.

+360 8-4-2 IN LAST 14 NFL O/U PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 BUF O/U PICKS

SDQL Gurus

Serious Scientists
Sun 11/29

L.A. Chargers @ Buffalo | 11/29 | 6:00 PM UTC

OVER 52

LOSS

The Chargers know that no lead is safe, and they are trying to get Justin Herbert the Rookie of the Year award. This points to the Over. Buffalo allowed 453 yards of offense to the Cardinals in its 32-30 loss in Arizona. This activates an Over trend for the Chargers. The Over is 8-0 when the Chargers are off a win of three or more points as a home favorite and are facing a team that allowed more than 400 yards of offense in its last game. Also, the Over is 13-0 when the Bills are a single-digit favorite against a team that had fewer regular season wins the previous season and has a turnover margin of less than two. We are on the Over.

+480 7-2-1 IN LAST 10 NFL PICKS

L.A. Chargers

player
QBJustinHerbert
20.35fan duel$7,900
21.55draft kings$6,900
23.1cbs sports
player
RBAustinEkeler
14.37fan duel$7,000
17.68draft kings$7,100
12.02cbs sports
player
RBJoshuaKelley
3.77fan duel$5,200
4.02draft kings$4,000
3.67cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
J. HerbertJustin Herbert24/352641.800.850.1923.1
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
A. EkelerAustin Ekeler10.9520.224.70.1612.0
J. KelleyJoshua Kelley8.2280.163.40.133.7
T. PopeTroymaine Pope4.1180.074.50.073.7
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
K. AllenKeenan Allen7.1760.4510.70.1310.3
M. WilliamsMike Williams3.0520.3717.50.037.6
A. EkelerAustin Ekeler4.7420.259.00.1612.0
H. HenryHunter Henry3.9410.2610.60.045.7
J. GuytonJalen Guyton1.7300.1317.50.023.7
T. JohnsonTyron Johnson1.3230.1017.40.033.1
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
L. DSTLAC DST1.980.900.541.41.72.2

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Derwin James, Melvin Ingram
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

Buffalo

player
QBJoshAllen
24.19fan duel
25.39draft kings
27.7cbs sports
player
RBZackMoss
9.56fan duel
10.47draft kings
9.18cbs sports
player
RBDevinSingletary
7.46fan duel
8.73draft kings
6.61cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
J. AllenJosh Allen23/362562.200.890.2727.7
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
Z. MossZack Moss10.9500.544.60.129.2
D. SingletaryDevin Singletary8.7430.174.90.106.6
J. AllenJosh Allen5.8300.495.20.2727.7
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
S. DiggsStefon Diggs6.5840.5413.00.0711.9
C. BeasleyCole Beasley5.7660.4411.50.069.2
G. DavisGabriel Davis2.1310.3614.90.025.3
D. KnoxDawson Knox1.6230.1314.50.122.9
I. McKenzieIsaiah McKenzie2.4220.259.10.044.3
D. SingletaryDevin Singletary1.7130.037.50.106.6
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
B. DSTBUF DST2.660.851.012.22.53.2

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

John Brown, Tommy Sweeney, E.J. Gaines, Star Lotulelei, Isaiah Hodgins, Del`Shawn Phillips
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

last updated: 11/29/2020 16:46 GMT