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nfl - Sun 11/29 | 9:25 PM UTC | Raymond James Stadium |

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay

Odds by William Hill Sportsbook
ATS
KC -3.5
-3
Over / Under
56
53
ML
KC -175
-160

Matchup breakdown

Kansas City
Tampa Bay
PROJ SCORE
14-2
W-L
12-5
7-9
ATS W-L
9-8
7-8
O/U
10-7
6.9
PT DIFF
8.5
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Past Expert Picks

Larry Hartstein

Senior Analyst
Sun 11/29

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay | 11/29 | 9:25 PM UTC

Tampa Bay +3.5

WIN

Tom Brady has been a bust in primetime but solid in every other time slot this season. He'll be helped by the expected return of guard Ali Marpet. This is a potential letdown spot for the Chiefs after they basically clinched their division last week in Las Vegas. Grab the points.

+890 19-9-2 IN LAST 30 NFL ATS PICKS
+1285 15-2 IN LAST 17 KC ATS PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 TB ATS PICKS

Mike Tierney

Top Dog
Fri 11/27

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay | 11/29 | 9:25 PM UTC

Kansas City -3

PUSH

All you need to know: The Chiefs have lost once outright in their latest 19 games. The line is puny enough to make a straight-up win and a failed cover improbable. Tampa Bay’s active defense can produce a few headaches for QB Patrick Mahomes, but K.C. should still hit a sufficient points total, given Tampa Bay’s jumbled O-line situation. The latest stack on the pile is center A.Q. Shipley (neck). QB Tom Brady is unlikely to be Tom Terrific against an upgraded defense than ranks seventh.

+450 22-16-3 IN LAST 41 NFL ATS PICKS
+810 17-8-2 IN LAST 27 KC ATS PICKS
+390 5-1-3 IN LAST 9 TB ATS PICKS

Zack Cimini

Contrarian with Chutzpah
Sun 11/29

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay | 11/29 | 9:25 PM UTC

Tampa Bay +3.5

WIN

Each time the Buccaneers have lost, they’ve bounced back the following week. From an offensive standpoint, they should improve, as the Chiefs' defense has allowed 30 or more points in consecutive games. On a short week, look for Tampa Bay to respond yet again by dictating the time of possession and winning the turnover battle.

+182 4-2 IN LAST 6 KC ATS PICKS

Mike McClure

Money
Sat 11/28

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay | 11/29 | 9:25 PM UTC

Kansas City -3

PUSH

The Chiefs offer nice value at -3 on the road against Tampa Bay. Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill was already a major matchup problem, but even more so now that Jamel Dean is out for the Bucs. I make Kansas City -4.8 points better on the road, making them a strong play getting through the key number at 3. Lay it.

+175 5-3-1 IN LAST 9 KC ATS PICKS

Emory Hunt

The Czar of the Playbook
Fri 11/27

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay | 11/29 | 9:25 PM UTC

Kansas City -3

PUSH

In order for the Bucs to reach their full potential on offense, they have to play better up front. Granted, they are dealing with some injuries along the offensive line, which has played into what we saw last week vs the Rams. However, that is still no excuse for Tom Brady's play, as he will also have to perform better. Kansas City is playing extremely well and will be looking to make a statement against who is perceived as one of the best teams in the NFC.

+345 11-7-1 IN LAST 19 NFL ATS PICKS
+488 21-15-1 IN LAST 37 KC ATS PICKS
+143 8-6-2 IN LAST 16 TB ATS PICKS

Adam Silverstein

Florida Favorite
Sun 11/29

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay | 11/29 | 9:25 PM UTC

Kansas City -3.5

LOSS

The dominant Buccaneers defense that made waves early this season has fallen flat against good offense this last month, and it has yet to face the best in the game. That’s what the Chiefs bring to town on Sunday. Though Kansas City has failed to cover its last two outings – the last a true disappointment to your’s truly – I do not trust Tampa Bay in any spot against a top-tier opponent. There’s been a lot of attention on Tom Brady’s failures last week, but he’s had issues all season long. The Chiefs will win up front, pressure Brady and stay on top of the Bucs to such a degree that the hosts will have to force throws late in the game, which likely means more turnovers and mistakes. Give me KC.

+498 15-9-1 IN LAST 25 NFL ATS PICKS
+782 20-11-2 IN LAST 33 KC ATS PICKS
+660 12-5-2 IN LAST 19 TB ATS PICKS

Tom Fornelli

#TrustTheProcess
Fri 11/27

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay | 11/29 | 9:25 PM UTC

Kansas City -3

PUSH

I know it's dangerous to say it, but I think we've seen the beginning of the decline phase for Tom Brady. Or at least an acceleration of the decline phase. He's playing in an offense in which Bruce Arians wants him to bomb the ball down the field, but his accuracy doing so has been missing. The Tampa offense still ranks eighth in DVOA, but it's been trending in the wrong direction lately, and I have a hard time imagining that Brady will be able to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes and the best offense in the NFL.

+85 3-2-2 IN LAST 7 NFL ATS PICKS
+81 3-2-3 IN LAST 8 TB ATS PICKS

Hank Goldberg

Hammer
Wed 11/25

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay | 11/29 | 9:25 PM UTC

Kansas City -3.5

LOSS

Tom Brady is up to nine interceptions; he's showing his age and making bad decisions. And I don't like the way Bruce Arians is coaching. Defensively, the Bucs rely too much on blitzing. Pressure isn't going to bother Patrick Mahomes. Lay the points.

+535 23-16-4 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS

SDQL Gurus

Serious Scientists
Sun 11/29

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay | 11/29 | 9:25 PM UTC

UNDER 56.5

WIN

The Chiefs are off a win as a road favorite, and they are facing a team that likes to throw the ball. This has been a solid Under spot, as the Under is 11-0 when Kansas City is off a win as a road favorite, is on grass and facing a team that has averaged 37 or more passes per game. We make the play the Under.

+480 7-2-1 IN LAST 10 NFL PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 TB O/U PICKS

Kansas City

player
QBPatrickMahomes
23.33fan duel
24.89draft kings
27.49cbs sports
player
RBClydeEdwards-Helaire
10.45fan duel
11.89draft kings
9.4cbs sports
player
RBLe`VeonBell
5.02fan duel
5.84draft kings
4.32cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
P. MahomesPatrick Mahomes25/362842.300.440.0527.5
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
C. Edwards-HelaireClyde Edwards-Helaire10.6360.423.40.139.4
L. BellLe`Veon Bell7.2220.173.10.094.3
P. MahomesPatrick Mahomes4.0140.233.40.0527.5
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
T. KelceTravis Kelce6.5810.5512.50.0811.5
T. HillTyreek Hill5.5750.7413.60.0913.0
S. WatkinsSammy Watkins4.4500.2911.50.146.7
M. HardmanMecole Hardman2.8450.3315.90.046.5
D. RobinsonDemarcus Robinson2.5260.2010.30.063.7
C. Edwards-HelaireClyde Edwards-Helaire2.1230.1811.00.139.4
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
K. DSTKC DST1.900.920.721.72.02.9

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

Byron Pringle, Damien Williams, Taco Charlton, Alex Brown
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

Tampa Bay

player
QBTomBrady
19.16fan duel
20.42draft kings
22.06cbs sports
player
RBRonaldJones
10.99fan duel
12.94draft kings
9.94cbs sports
player
RBLeonardFournette
9.55fan duel
11.14draft kings
8.5cbs sports
PASSINGCP/ATTYDTDINTFUMLFP
T. BradyTom Brady24/402701.900.900.0822.1
RUSHINGRUSHYDTDYPCFUMLFP
R. JonesRonald Jones12.2640.415.20.159.9
L. FournetteLeonard Fournette10.8470.394.30.138.5
RECEIVINGRECYDTDYPRFUMLFP
C. GodwinChris Godwin5.3650.4112.30.059.0
M. EvansMike Evans4.3630.6214.60.0410.1
A. BrownAntonio Brown5.2530.4110.30.077.8
R. GronkowskiRob Gronkowski2.9410.2914.20.035.9
S. MillerScott Miller1.3200.0815.60.022.7
L. FournetteLeonard Fournette2.1150.027.20.138.5
DEF-STSACKINTFRECFGMFGAXP
T. DSTTB DST1.830.440.831.61.92.5

PLAYERS LISTED AS OUT OR DOUBTFUL:

O.J. Howard, Vita Vea, T.J. Logan
*Questionable players are included in the projection.

last updated: 11/29/2020 20:48 GMT