Past Expert Picks
Tom Brady has been a bust in primetime but solid in every other time slot this season. He'll be helped by the expected return of guard Ali Marpet. This is a potential letdown spot for the Chiefs after they basically clinched their division last week in Las Vegas. Grab the points.
All you need to know: The Chiefs have lost once outright in their latest 19 games. The line is puny enough to make a straight-up win and a failed cover improbable. Tampa Bay’s active defense can produce a few headaches for QB Patrick Mahomes, but K.C. should still hit a sufficient points total, given Tampa Bay’s jumbled O-line situation. The latest stack on the pile is center A.Q. Shipley (neck). QB Tom Brady is unlikely to be Tom Terrific against an upgraded defense than ranks seventh.
Each time the Buccaneers have lost, they’ve bounced back the following week. From an offensive standpoint, they should improve, as the Chiefs' defense has allowed 30 or more points in consecutive games. On a short week, look for Tampa Bay to respond yet again by dictating the time of possession and winning the turnover battle.
The Chiefs offer nice value at -3 on the road against Tampa Bay. Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill was already a major matchup problem, but even more so now that Jamel Dean is out for the Bucs. I make Kansas City -4.8 points better on the road, making them a strong play getting through the key number at 3. Lay it.
In order for the Bucs to reach their full potential on offense, they have to play better up front. Granted, they are dealing with some injuries along the offensive line, which has played into what we saw last week vs the Rams. However, that is still no excuse for Tom Brady's play, as he will also have to perform better. Kansas City is playing extremely well and will be looking to make a statement against who is perceived as one of the best teams in the NFC.
The dominant Buccaneers defense that made waves early this season has fallen flat against good offense this last month, and it has yet to face the best in the game. That’s what the Chiefs bring to town on Sunday. Though Kansas City has failed to cover its last two outings – the last a true disappointment to your’s truly – I do not trust Tampa Bay in any spot against a top-tier opponent. There’s been a lot of attention on Tom Brady’s failures last week, but he’s had issues all season long. The Chiefs will win up front, pressure Brady and stay on top of the Bucs to such a degree that the hosts will have to force throws late in the game, which likely means more turnovers and mistakes. Give me KC.
I know it's dangerous to say it, but I think we've seen the beginning of the decline phase for Tom Brady. Or at least an acceleration of the decline phase. He's playing in an offense in which Bruce Arians wants him to bomb the ball down the field, but his accuracy doing so has been missing. The Tampa offense still ranks eighth in DVOA, but it's been trending in the wrong direction lately, and I have a hard time imagining that Brady will be able to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes and the best offense in the NFL.
Tom Brady is up to nine interceptions; he's showing his age and making bad decisions. And I don't like the way Bruce Arians is coaching. Defensively, the Bucs rely too much on blitzing. Pressure isn't going to bother Patrick Mahomes. Lay the points.
Kansas City @ Tampa Bay | 11/29 | 9:25 PM UTC
The Chiefs are off a win as a road favorite, and they are facing a team that likes to throw the ball. This has been a solid Under spot, as the Under is 11-0 when Kansas City is off a win as a road favorite, is on grass and facing a team that has averaged 37 or more passes per game. We make the play the Under.