I've been waiting for this to get to Raiders -3 ... it opened at -5.5. I doubt it gets below 3 so we better jump now as it may go back to 3.5. Denver is the only team in the league to be a dog in every game so far -- yes, even the Jets and Jags have been favored once. Las Vegas has covered the last five meetings and also has covered four straight vs. AFC West foes overall. Really no game-shifting injures here, but every simulation I have found has the Raiders winning by at least 3 so we'll give the points (but be buying down to -2.5).

The Raiders are coming off a thrilling victory over the Chargers in which they made a defensive stand in the final seconds. They now have a golden opportunity to strengthen their playoff chances. However, inconsistency has been a trademark of the Raiders, and they have not won or covered a home game since their debut in Las Vegas. Grab the Broncos as QB Drew Lock continues to improve.

This is a big game in the AFC West. The Raiders are 5-3 and Denver is 3-5. I'm still not a believer in the Raiders, mainly because their defense ranks 30th in DVOA. The Broncos rank 9th on the defensive end but just 31st in offense. The excuse for Denver was a loss of a solid wide receiver and offensive lineman early in the year, but in its last two games, it scored 31 and 27 points. QB Drew Lock is entrenched as the starter, and I look for the offense to score big against the Raiders' defense.

The only time this season a Raiders game hasn't gone Over 51 points came in that extremely windy Cleveland game, and the reason this team has been almost an autobet on the Over has been an offense that ranks fourth in the NFL in points per drive paired with a defense that ranks dead last in the same category. The Denver offense has flashed this year, showing that it can score on bad defenses. In fact, each of Denver's last two games featured 61 points of scoring. That's the type of game we should see here again with Derek Carr in the midst of an impressive season.

The Broncos finally are getting healthy in the secondary. On the other side of the ball, Drew Lock should excel against a Raiders' defense that ranks 20th in pressure rate and 31st in blitz rate. Grab the points in what should be a tight divisional game.