I don't agree with the line movement towards the Raiders in this game. I make Kansas City -11.8 better at a neutral site, and -13.2 better in this environment this afternoon. My model is very high on Clyde Edwards-Helaire today. Lay it.

Long-time readers of my picks know I usually shy away from double-digit spreads ... unless it involves the Chiefs. Not only do I believe Kansas City's defense is underrated, but this Las Vegas defense has been a sieve so far this season, allowing 30 points per game. KC has not allowed more than 20, it's playing at home, and it needs to shake off the cobwebs from a mostly ugly game against New England last week. The Chiefs have been dominant over the Raiders in recent meetings, and Andy Reid owns Jon Gruden. I thought this might get to -10, but close to kickoff, we'll take it here. Kansas City should win by two touchdowns.

The Chiefs have a defense. They haven't allowed more than 20 points in a game this season. When the Chiefs haven't looked like their dominant selves (Chargers, Pats) it occurred because the offense was slowed a bit, but that isn't likely to happen against the Raiders, who have the NFL's third worst defense by Football Outsiders' DVOA. The Chiefs won their last three games against the Raiders by a combined 103-22, and I don't think Vegas' D will be able to keep this one close either. Lay the points.

Patrick Mahomes & Co. have a favorable matchup going against the Vegas defense. Through four games, the Raiders are allowing 30.0 points per game. Only eight teams are giving up more. On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense has been one of the best in the NFL. Kansas City has allowed just 17.5 points per game this season. That ranks second in the league, trailing only the Colts (14.0). My model says the Chiefs cover 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.

The Raiders hurt themselves with five fumbles the past two weeks. Fumbles are fluky and I'll bet against them coughing it up like that three straight weeks. Plus the injury news is positive for the Raiders, who have a potent offense. They can get us the backdoor cover even if K.C. goes up big.