Not going to pass up the Chiefs at this number despite the offensive line injuries. Andy Reid can scheme around that. This is a nice bounce-back spot for Kansas City in which it is undervalued coming off a loss and Houston is overvalued after blowing out Atlanta. Tyreek Hill is back for the Chiefs, which should help electrify the offense. Patrick Mahomes will not make the same mistakes in consecutive weeks, as long as he can find some semblance of protection. The Texans are maddeningly inconsistent, and a road game against a top-tier team while they are feeling themselves following the decimation of the Falcons is not a good spot to trust them.

Patrick Mahomes' ankle should be much better this week, which will help him extend drives and push the ball downfield. Houston's Deshaun Watson has been very good in 2019 with 11 TD's to just one int. Both defenses have been average so far in 2019. Plus, the weather will be perfect for a shootout from two of the best QB's in the NFL. Take the Over.

The Texans beat up on the Falcons last week and the Chiefs lost to the Colts, but does that make these teams almost even, as this line suggests? There’s just too much value here on a Chiefs team that, even after the Colts hiccup, still leads the league in passing yards by almost 40 yards per game and remains in the top four in scoring. Plus, there's a chance K.C. could have Tyreek Hill back. Lay the points.

The Chiefs lost last week for the first time this season and Houston won big so naturally, there’s an overreaction to each side. This is a huge game for the Texans to see where they stand after losing to the Panthers and Saints. I’m on the angle of the Chiefs responding well off a loss and getting the cover.

Obviously the Chiefs are going to bounce back offensively after last week's embarrassment. But the Texans can keep up. They should be able to run the ball against Kansas City's depleted defensive line, and Deshaun Watson is in a groove. He hasn't thrown a pick since Week 1. The Texans have covered both their road games this year as underdogs, relatively easily. Since Watson arrived, they've excelled in this road dog role.

I worry about the injuries on the Chiefs' offensive line, but I think the value here is too good to pass up. This line was Chiefs -8 on the lookahead and dropped because the Chiefs lost (did you think they were going 16-0?) and the Texans scored 53 (which is unlikely to happen again). Patrick Mahomes is practicing, and that's the only injury for Kansas City that would worry me. He might even have Tyreek Hill back for this game. This could be a shootout, but I'm taking the discount on the Chiefs while I have the chance.

Was Kansas City’s offensive clunker last Sunday an aberration or a new normal? Here is guessing a bit of the latter. Indianapolis shifted its pass coverage from primarily zone to tight man-to-man, and the Chiefs were held to 13 points. No doubt Houston is pondering the same approach. Chiefs games usually clear the total, but this number is high in light of last Sunday’s shutdown. The Texans have kept things Under in five of their last seven outings.

It's a shame this game isn't on Sunday or Monday Night, as there will be a ton of big plays and a lot of points scored in this one. Quietly, the Texans have the ability to run the ball and do so at a much more efficient rate than the Chiefs. Look for a back-and-forth affair until the Texans decide to take the air out of the ball and secure a win.