If you know me, you know I exercise great caution when potentially picking the Dolphins, but this is a spot in which Miami deserves to be favored by more. Everyone is down on the Dolphins after that embarrassing showing last week, and Frank Gore is out. But here's the thing. Miami always bounces back at home, particularly after being embarrassed. And in this case, it gets a horrible one-dimensional Jacksonville team. I hate Xavien Howard being out, but the Dolphins are capable enough in the secondary even without him, especially if Reshad Jones gets to play down in the box -- which he should considering Miami must stop Leonard Fournette. Take Miami at home but shade your eyes from this disaster of a game..

Any team that has scored one touchdown in the past three weeks -- we’re looking at you, Jacksonville -- needs more points than a measly 3.5. The Jaguars have lost so much confidence in QB Blake Bortles that they are sending Cody Kessler to the wolves -- or, in this case, the Fish -- for a fourth straight game. The Jaguars’ defense has been their saving grace, but S Ronnie Harrison (knee) leaves a hole in the secondary. Miami is justifiably concerned over losing RB Frank Gore (foot). Yet the Dolphins have covered all but once at home whereas the Jags have just one ATS away win.

The Jaguars come in on a 1-7-2 ATS streak and they're almost worse than that with QB Cody Kessler running the show. On the road, the Jags are 1-5 straight-up and 1-4-1 ATS. The Dolphins happen to be one of the better home teams in the NFL, winning six of seven (5-2 ATS). So despite getting crushed at Minnesota last week, they've shown the ability to bounce back at home all season. Back the Dolphins to cover.

The Jaguars have the worst offense in football right now, and it's not particularly close. They've scored one TD in the last three weeks combined with Cody Kessler at quarterback, and it came in garbage time. Last week, they had just 20 net passing yards. Twenty! The Dolphins also had an awful passing game last week, but it came against a great Minnesota defense in a tough environment, not at home. They'll be able to run the ball at will here and the Miami defense will shine against an offense that hasn't shown up in three weeks and has no reason to do so on the road in a lost season here.

The Jaguars offense has been atrocious with Cody Kessler at quarterback, scoring one touchdown in three weeks. Miami isn't exactly doing much better on offense. In fact, these two teams combined for just 57 passing yards last week. In an NFL game. In 2018. The Dolphins still got to 17 points thanks to a pick-six and a 75-yard run, while the Jags scored 13 thanks to a punt return TD. Unless we get multiple non-offensive TDs in this one, it should finish Under this total.

At home, the Dolphins are 6-1, with wins over the the Patriots, Bears and Titans. Ryan Tannehill has thrown eight TDs against one INT since returning from injury. The Jaguars have one offensive touchdown in the past three games. Lay it.