Waited as long as I could hoping to see this at 6.5, but I'll take the touchdown regardless for the better team top-to-bottom at home. If the only differentiation in this game was Big Ben vs. Blake Bortles, that would be enough for the touchdown spread. The Steelers also boast the better offensive playmaking talent, the homefield advantage and the revenge motivator. The Jaguars are probably underrated here because of their defense and running game, but Bortles could absolutely implode against this Pittsburgh defense.

The Steelers have gone 1-5 ATS in their last six, and they've had quite a delay from real action with most of the starters taking Week 17 off and then having the bye. They might be a bit rusty offensively. The Jags have momentum from last week and they also have a 30-9 Week 5 win at Pittsburgh in which Ben Roethlisberger threw five picks, including two that went for TDs. Look for another defensive battle between top-5 defensive units. Under is the play.

This is a perfect spot for the Steelers, playing at home with revenge against an extremely limited Jaguars offense. Antonio Brown healed up with the time off and should win often against Jalen Ramsey. Lay it.

In other circumstances, the Steelers might get caught looking ahead in this type of matchup to a rematch with the Patriots. But they'll "welcome" the Jaguars into Pittsburgh with revenge on their minds after an early-season meltdown by Big Ben against this team. The Jaguars scraped by last week against a poor team at home, and they have to find some offense from somewhere. Blake Bortles on the road in January? I like that spot for the Steelers defense. Plus the Jaguars defense didn't exactly look elite against the Seahawks and 49ers late in the season. I'll take the much better team here.

Jacksonville blew out the Steelers earlier in the season. The Jaguars are quietly the same team, but the Steelers are a different squad. Plus, they are more apt to generate offense against a very good defense more so than the Bills could.

The Jaguars have already handled the Steelers once this season, and they shouldn't be such massive underdogs Sunday. Not with their fierce defense to rely on. In my simulations, Jacksonville is winning outright 37 percent of the time, making the Jags worth a shot at this tremendous price.